7404 Big Horn Ct · Burlington, KY 41005

$309,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,748 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1996 Est $351k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced for a quick sale. Make an offer. 4 bedrooms, gas fireplace. Cathedral ceiling.

Key facts

• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($305/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#83 in KY, #2,792 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Longbranch Elementary School (math 60% / reading 61%, grade B-, #31 of 676 statewide, top 5%, 867 students, 26% FRL); Camp Ernst Middle School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 723 students, 48% FRL); Randall K. Cooper High School (math 46% / reading 50%, grade D, #17 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 1,462 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $310k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $250,878 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $351,348
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7400 Indian Ridge Way	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,764 (+1%)	4mo	$329,900	$187	87
2973 Timber Ridge Way	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,710 (-2%)	3mo	$285,000	$167	84
2951 Babbling Brook Way	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,736 (-1%)	4mo	$350,000	$202	84
177 Owl Overlook	0.45mi	4/2.5	1,680 (-4%)	1mo	$317,500	$189	72
3027 Tomahawk Ridge Way	0.10mi	4/3.5	1,944 (+11%)	2mo	$360,000	$185	71
3008 Ashbrook Cir	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,688 (-3%)	8mo	$338,500	$201	71
2242 Bluegrama Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	1,753 (+0%)	4mo	$384,000	$219	63
201 Owl Overlook	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,677 (-4%)	2mo	$337,000	$201	62
7500 Harvestdale Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,677 (-4%)	1mo	$409,000	$244	61
7375 Sterling Springs Way	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,514 (-13%)	8mo	$258,000	$170	60
6854 Gordon Blvd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,652 (-6%)	1mo	$328,000	$199	56
7704 Falls Creek Way	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,560 (-11%)	8mo	$325,000	$208	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-48,675
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-40,611
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41005

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,509 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,427/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,477

Max offer price $309,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $113	+0% $25	+5% $-62	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-74	+0% $25	+5% $124	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $104	base $25	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $309,900
2. 2013-05-24
   soldstatus $135,000 85-char remark

   Show marketing remark (85 chars)

   Priced for a quick sale. Make an offer. 4 bedrooms, gas fireplace. Cathedral ceiling.

3. 2013-03-01
   listed $134,900 85-char remark

   Show marketing remark (85 chars)

   Priced for a quick sale. Make an offer. 4 bedrooms, gas fireplace. Cathedral ceiling.

4. 1996-09-13
   soldstatus $134,020 71-char remark

   Show marketing remark (71 chars)

   This Home Has Immediate Occupancy Call 689-4828 For More Information!!!

5. 1996-05-28
   listed $135,095 71-char remark

   Show marketing remark (71 chars)

   This Home Has Immediate Occupancy Call 689-4828 For More Information!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,427 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,665 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$238/yr (+$20/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$2,427
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,408
• − Management: −$2,408
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$5,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,215
• After-tax cash flow: $1,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #2792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Boone County · 99,563 people
• City population: 25,718
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 25,718
• Household income: $112,083
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 399.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.14%
• Current HPI: 220.1076
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+129.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $309,900 FSBO.com
• 2013-05-24 Sold (MLS) $135,000 NKMLS
• 2013-03-01 Listed $134,900 NKMLS
• 1996-09-13 Sold (MLS) $134,020 NKMLS
• 1996-05-28 Listed $135,095 NKMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,427 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.