3109 E Elizabeth St · Edinburg, TX 78542

$158,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 687 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1991 0.33 ac lot $230/sqft · 73% above area Est $245k · 35% under ↓ 1% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment property with 2 lots and 2 homes. One of the homes is complete and rented. House 1 has 1,152 sqft and rented and house 2 has 687 sqft and is unfinished. Being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1991
• Listed 181 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.4% in Edinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#784 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Monte Cristo El (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 597 students, 95% FRL); Betty Harwell Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,453 students, 96% FRL); Economedes H S (math 19% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 2,762 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 62% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1011 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,034 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.37%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,946
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: -35.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-46,096
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-74,762
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78542

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1011
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,040/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $-272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,453

Max offer price $110,034

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-182	-5% $-227	+0% $-272	+5% $-316	+10% $-361
Rent	-10% $-359	-5% $-315	+0% $-272	+5% $-228	+10% $-184
Rate	-1.0pp $-192	-0.5pp $-231	base $-272	+0.5pp $-312	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3800 La Sienna Pkwy Edinburg, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	966	$1,342	$1.39	16d	1	1.11mi
2639 Alexander Dumas Dr W Edinburg, TX	1.0	1.0	420	$850	$2.02	16d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $158,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $158,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $158,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $158,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $158,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-03-04
   price $158,000 187-char remark

   Show marketing remark (187 chars)

   Great investment property with 2 lots and 2 homes. One of the homes is complete and rented. House 1 has 1,152 sqft and rented and house 2 has 687 sqft and is unfinished. Being sold as-is.

7. 2025-12-03
   listed $159,999 Active 187-char remark

   Show marketing remark (187 chars)

   Great investment property with 2 lots and 2 homes. One of the homes is complete and rented. House 1 has 1,152 sqft and rented and house 2 has 687 sqft and is unfinished. Being sold as-is.

8. 2025-03-31
   listed $160,000 Active
9. 2024-07-01
   soldstatus
10. 2013-04-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,040 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,040 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$3,040
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,065
• − Management: −$1,065
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$6,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,463
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edinburg CISD
• NCES district ID: 4818180
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,985
• Composite: 22.42/100
• National rank: #8114
• State rank: #699 of 826 in TX

Livability — Edinburg

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #784
• US rank: #14319

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Edinburg, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 89,401
• Household income: $55,243
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1240.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 59% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.17%
• Current HPI: 220.921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.07%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $158,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $159,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $160,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,040 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.