105 Tobago Cir · Guyton, GA 31312

$329,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,446 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2021 6,970 sqft lot Est $367k · 10% under $64/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* VIRTUAL APPOINTMENT AVAILABLE * * UNDER CONSTRUCTION SUMMER COMPLETION! * The "Radiant" Robie Plan by D. R. Horton 5 beds 3 baths. Vinyl flooring throughout the common areas. Large open kitchen features granite, counter height island, loads of cabinet space, walk-in pantry and all stainless steel appliances, including the fridge! First floor features a bedroom and full bath. Primary bedroom, located on the 2nd floor, has a walk-in closet and the primary bath offers dual sink vanity, 5 ft walk in shower with glass door and separate water closet. Hall bath upstairs also offers dual sink vanity. Includes 2" faux wood blinds in all standard windows and a fully sodded yard with irrigation. Includes a smart home system. Located in the Beautiful Park West Community, 5 miles away from HWY 21! Amenities include Tennis Courts, Pool, and Large Clubhouse! * Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built *

Key facts

• Fitness facility
• Clubhouse
• Fenced yard

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• LAGOON VIEW
• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS FACILITY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Planned Development (PD) zoning
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee (approximately $191 per quarter)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; 2-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Vinyl fencing / fenced yard; Lagoon waterfront; Property has a view; Underground utilities

Interior

• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-195/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.6% in Guyton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#128 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marlow Elementary School (math 63% / reading 50%, grade C+, #159 of 1,228 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 31% FRL); South Effingham Middle School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade B-, #52 of 470 statewide, top 11%, 1,097 students, 32% FRL); South Effingham High School (math 33% / reading 27%, grade F, #135 of 424 statewide, top 32%, 1,888 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 400 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $263k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,110 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.21%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $366,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Butternut Blvd	0.21mi	5/3.0	2,421 (-1%)	3mo	$300,000	$124	85
144 Tobago Cir	0.15mi	5/3.0	2,362 (-3%)	6mo	$369,400	$156	82
107 Butternut Blvd	0.24mi	5/3.0	2,440 (-0%)	12mo	$370,000	$152	79
106 Aruba Rd	0.22mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,427 (-1%)	10mo	$360,000	$148	74
123 Cotton Bluff Ct	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,505 (+2%)	1mo	$330,000	$132	66
202 Caribbean Village Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,235 (-9%)	9mo	$335,000	$150	65
124 Tobago Cir	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,193 (-10%)	11mo	$349,900	$160	62
265 Caribbean Village Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,193 (-10%)	4mo	$339,900	$155	61
104 Tupelo Trl	0.44mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,382 (-3%)	12mo	$299,000	$126	58
125 Butternut Ct	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,235 (-9%)	9mo	$339,000	$152	55
202 Bellflower Cir	0.33mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,265 (-7%)	13mo	$283,500	$125	55
103 Tupelo Trl	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,338 (-4%)	13mo	$321,000	$137	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-54,433
• Equity at exit: $49,189

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-48,485
• Equity at exit: $28,524

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31312

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,901 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,520/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,922

Max offer price $327,026

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $77	+0% $-16	+5% $-110	+10% $-203
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-131	+0% $-16	+5% $98	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $68	base $-16	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Creekside Blvd Guyton, GA	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1698	$2,955	$1.74	15d	15	0.86mi
257 Brookline Dr Savannah, GA	5.0	3.0	2956	$2,500	$0.85	15d	1	0.97mi
30 Ashmont St Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,800	$1.40	15d	1	1.00mi
33 Ashmont St Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,450	$1.22	23d	1	1.01mi
109 Fenway St Savannah, GA	4.0	2.0	2005	$2,450	$1.22	23d	1	1.04mi
116 Peabody St Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,500	$1.25	15d	1	1.05mi
134 Brookline Dr Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2466	$2,600	$1.05	15d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 670-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $329,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,520 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,520 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$4,520
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,785
• − Management: −$2,785
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$5,771
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,385
• After-tax cash flow: $1,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham County
• NCES district ID: 1301980
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,503
• Composite: 42.56/100
• National rank: #3195
• State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

Livability — Guyton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #9058

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Effingham County · 68,439 people
• City population: 25,991
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,991
• Household income: $101,750
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 97.0

Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,399 people
• By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
• By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
• By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 205.9899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+25.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $329,900 Hive MLS
• 2024-06-16 Rental Removed $3,000 RENT.
• 2024-05-16 Listed for Rent $3,000 RENT.
• 2021-09-01 Sold (MLS) $262,990 Hive MLS
• 2021-03-07 Listed $262,990 Hive MLS
• 2021-03-07 Listed $262,990 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,520 · +28.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.