10 Caravan Ct · Middletown, PA 17057

$69,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,085 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1978 $64/sqft · 20% above area Est $58k · 20% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the best-looking home in the park! Step inside this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence in Harborton Estates. This home has been reimagined from top to bottom, featuring brand-new vinyl plank flooring throughout and an updated kitchen with new cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. The bright, open-concept layout is designed to help you easily envision your new lifestyle in a space that feels fresh, inviting, and move-in ready. Your new beginning starts here, schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1978
• Listed 113 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 3.1% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#214 in PA, #1,886 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Middletown Area SD (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #368 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,790 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.75%
• DSCR: 3.12
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,579
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: 19.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Caravan Ct	0.02mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-15%)	8mo	$17,000	$18	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $31,464
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $76,692
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17057

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,494 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $254/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $605

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $741	-5% $722	+0% $702	+5% $683	+10% $663
Rent	-10% $584	-5% $643	+0% $702	+5% $761	+10% $820
Rate	-1.0pp $737	-0.5pp $720	base $702	+0.5pp $684	+1.0pp $666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Aspen St Unit 1 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,495	$1.73	14d	1	0.24mi
1900 Pineford Dr Middletown, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1020	$1,690	$1.66	14d	1	0.70mi
105 Woodland Ave Middletown, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	996	$1,714	$1.72	14d	9	0.71mi
43 E Main St Apt 4 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	45d	1	0.76mi
112 Nissley St Unit 2 Middletown, PA	2.0	2.0	1266	$1,350	$1.07	24d	1	1.08mi
213 S Union St Apt 1 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,400	$1.79	14d	1	1.22mi
219 S Union St Fl REAR Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	14d	1	1.23mi
219 S Union St Unit 2nd Floor Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	44d	1	1.23mi
144 Wilson St Middletown, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,495	$1.33	24d	1	1.24mi
167 Ann St Unit 4 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	14d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-04-04
    price $75,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to the best-looking home in the park! Step inside this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence in Harborton Estates. This home has been reimagined from top to bottom, featuring brand-new vinyl plank flooring throughout and an updated kitchen with new cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. The bright, open-concept layout is designed to help you easily envision your new lifestyle in a space that feels fresh, inviting, and move-in ready. Your new beginning starts here, schedule your tour today!

17. 2026-02-25
    listed $79,500 Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to the best-looking home in the park! Step inside this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence in Harborton Estates. This home has been reimagined from top to bottom, featuring brand-new vinyl plank flooring throughout and an updated kitchen with new cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. The bright, open-concept layout is designed to help you easily envision your new lifestyle in a space that feels fresh, inviting, and move-in ready. Your new beginning starts here, schedule your tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $254 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$418/yr (+$35/mo · 165.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$254
• − Insurance: −$1,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $7,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,870
• After-tax cash flow: $6,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215240
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,128
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5567
• State rank: #368 of 539 in PA

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #214
• US rank: #1886

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• City population: 23,560
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 23,560
• Household income: $73,407
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 748.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.17%
• Current HPI: 265.6077
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $79,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $254 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.