4115 Twin Dr W · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$374,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,457 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2018 0.29 ac lot $257/sqft · 43% above area Est $262k · 43% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This custom-built home offers the perfect blend of style and functionality, featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open-concept layout, a beautiful kitchen, whole-home generator, and a spacious backyard ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. Schedule an appointment and see for yourself what all this beauty has to offer!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Beautiful kitchen
• Whole-home generator

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BEAUTIFUL KITCHEN
• WHOLE-HOME GENERATOR
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50k ($596k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($67k rent vs $375k).
• Recommended offer: $352k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 166.6% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $352,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 17.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 166.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 572.44%
• DSCR: 26.47
• GRM: 0.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,202
• List price: $374,900
• Delta: 42.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4028 Avenue O	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+1%)	0mo	$225,000	$152	83
12423 A Bar Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,443 (-1%)	2mo	$269,000	$186	78
12626 Langford St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+5%)	7mo	$250,000	$163	74
4132 Avenue Q 1/2	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+3%)	1mo	$359,999	$240	74
4406 B Bar Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,435 (-2%)	1mo	$250,000	$174	72
4310 A Bar Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+11%)	3mo	$240,000	$148	63
3700 Avenue S St W	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-4%)	5mo	$315,000	$224	56
13303 Kaylee Ln	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (-2%)	7mo	$299,900	$211	54
13242 9th St	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,313 (-10%)	6mo	$220,000	$168	53
13306 Winston Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+12%)	3mo	$399,900	$246	50
13241 8th St	0.44mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,318 (-10%)	8mo	$110,000	$83	50
13314 Kaylee Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+10%)	7mo	$279,900	$174	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 30.56×
• Total profit: $3,102,663
• Equity at exit: $55,899

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 65.58×
• Total profit: $6,778,712
• Equity at exit: $32,415

Cash invested: $104,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 0.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $66,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax from tax record: −$496 /mo · $5,951/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$14,007
• Net cashflow: $49,648

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,854

Max offer price $374,900

Occupancy floor 21%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49,861	-5% $49,754	+0% $49,648	+5% $49,542	+10% $49,436
Rent	-10% $44,379	-5% $47,014	+0% $49,648	+5% $52,283	+10% $54,918
Rate	-1.0pp $49,837	-0.5pp $49,744	base $49,648	+0.5pp $49,551	+1.0pp $49,452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,725
• Closing costs: $11,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	44d	1	0.13mi
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	22d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $374,900 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $374,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $374,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,900 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,900 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    listed $374,900 Active 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    This custom-built home offers the perfect blend of style and functionality, featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open-concept layout, a beautiful kitchen, whole-home generator, and a spacious backyard ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. Schedule an appointment and see for yourself what all this beauty has to offer!

15. 2024-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,951 · $496/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,861 · $572/mo
• Expected delta: +$910/yr (+$76/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $800,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,000
• − Property taxes: −$5,951
• − Insurance: −$6,993
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$64,032
• − Management: −$64,032
• − Depreciation: −$10,906
• Taxable income: $627,486
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$150,597
• After-tax cash flow: $445,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $374,900 HARMLS
• 2024-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+21.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,951 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.