313 Oak Valley Dr · Elizabethtown, KY 42701

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,544 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1990 0.34 ac lot Est $270k · 44% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Good condition - good location. Kitchen freshly painted. New vinyl being installed week of Sept. 10.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1990

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Oak Valley
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with front entry
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence, Cape Cod style; Two stories; Built in 1990
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Lot size about 0.34 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bathroom on the first floor; A full bathroom on the second floor
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air with heat pump
• Interior features: Finished walkout basement; One fireplace; Seven total rooms; Five closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.4% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#131 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 539 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.75%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,200
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Oak Valley Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+2%)	2mo	$190,000	$121	92
311 Oak Valley Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-1%)	14mo	$240,000	$157	86
307 Oak Valley Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,746 (+13%)	5mo	$200,000	$115	70
206 Pear Orchard Rd Rd NW	0.47mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,478 (-4%)	0mo	$205,000	$139	62
209 Oak Valley Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+13%)	16mo	$212,500	$122	55
305 Routt Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-8%)	1mo	$270,000	$190	53
103 Cecil Ct	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,392 (-10%)	9mo	$250,000	$180	51
311 Crabapple Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-3%)	18mo	$318,000	$212	46
211 Lakewood Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,738 (+13%)	11mo	$304,000	$175	46
312 White Oak Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,653 (+7%)	23mo	$389,900	$236	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,701
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,089
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42701

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 539
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,351/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,323

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
845 Pine Valley Dr Elizabethtown, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1412	$1,350	$0.96	21d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 645-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,351 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,351 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,351
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$116
• After-tax cash flow: $2,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 2102490
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 31.61/100
• National rank: #5945
• State rank: #47 of 165 in KY

Livability — Elizabethtown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #6198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elizabethtown, KY
• County: Hardin County · 77,611 people
• City population: 53,987
• Metro: Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY
• Population (ZIP): 53,987
• Household income: $69,619
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,573 people
• By 2030: 103,563 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 97,077 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 88,367 · -16.3%
• By 2075: 65,405 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 42,245 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+30.2 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.94%
• Current HPI: 228.7091
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $150,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-28 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-07-09 Listed $155,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,351 · +40.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.