1465 Burden Lake Rd · Averill Park, NY 12018

$270,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1818 0.29 ac lot $194/sqft · 14% below area Est $315k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Roof only 1 year old, newer stainless steel appliances, new floors, pellet stove, updated kitchen, close to Burden Lake located in the Averill Park School system. Possible 3 or 4 bedrooms with some slight renovations. Taxes have been adjusted and estimated taxes for 2019 are $4600 combined. Good Condition

Key facts

• New counter tops
• New exterior paint
• New interior paint

Tags

• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW COUNTER TOPS
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• UPDATED WELL PUMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fuel tank(s) present

Exterior

• Parking: Space for 5 vehicles; Off-street parking on stone surface
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Vinyl siding construction
• Construction: Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second level; Two additional bedrooms on the first level
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the first level, one on the second level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Partial basement with Bilco doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-604/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#101 in NY, #1,641 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Averill Park Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #169 of 590 in NY (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Averill Park High School (math 97% / reading 98%, grade A+, #49 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 897 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 97% at this address vs 64% district-wide (+34 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Averill Park Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $270k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1818 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $236,098 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1818 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,363
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -14.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Orient Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,412 (+1%)	6mo	$275,000	$195	57
102 Edgewood Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,400 (+1%)	6mo	$355,000	$254	55
3063 NY Highway 43	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,344 (-3%)	10mo	$195,000	$145	48
3147 NY Rt 43	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (-5%)	20mo	$70,000	$53	40
7 Fairfield Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,216 (-13%)	10mo	$260,000	$214	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $143,909
• Equity at exit: $243,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $426,441
• Equity at exit: $524,551

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12018

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,645/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,425

Max offer price $261,107

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $102	-5% $26	+0% $-50	+5% $-127	+10% $-203
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-144	+0% $-50	+5% $43	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $18	base $-50	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $270,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $270,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $290,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $290,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    listed $299,999 Active 433-char remark
14. 2018-10-30
    soldstatus $124,800
15. 2018-10-19
    soldstatus $127,200 Closed (Final Sale) 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Roof only 1 year old, newer stainless steel appliances, new floors, pellet stove, updated kitchen, close to Burden Lake located in the Averill Park School system. Possible 3 or 4 bedrooms with some slight renovations. Taxes have been adjusted and estimated taxes for 2019 are $4600 combined. Good Condition

16. 2018-08-30
    status Pend (Under Cntr) 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Roof only 1 year old, newer stainless steel appliances, new floors, pellet stove, updated kitchen, close to Burden Lake located in the Averill Park School system. Possible 3 or 4 bedrooms with some slight renovations. Taxes have been adjusted and estimated taxes for 2019 are $4600 combined. Good Condition

17. 2018-07-21
    price $129,900 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Roof only 1 year old, newer stainless steel appliances, new floors, pellet stove, updated kitchen, close to Burden Lake located in the Averill Park School system. Possible 3 or 4 bedrooms with some slight renovations. Taxes have been adjusted and estimated taxes for 2019 are $4600 combined. Good Condition

18. 2018-07-11
    listed $139,900 New 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Roof only 1 year old, newer stainless steel appliances, new floors, pellet stove, updated kitchen, close to Burden Lake located in the Averill Park School system. Possible 3 or 4 bedrooms with some slight renovations. Taxes have been adjusted and estimated taxes for 2019 are $4600 combined. Good Condition

19. 2015-02-06
    soldstatus $104,000
20. 2014-10-02
    historical
21. 2012-10-11
    listed $128,000
22. 2007-01-18
    soldstatus $114,900
23. 2006-12-05
    historical
24. 2006-09-22
    listed $114,900
25. 2001-10-02
    soldstatus $30,000
26. 2001-10-01
    soldstatus $30,000
27. 2001-07-06
    historical
28. 1999-10-25
    listed $43,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,645 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,645 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,645
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,267
• − Management: −$2,267
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$5,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Averill Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600016
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,340
• Composite: 56.94/100
• National rank: #1113
• State rank: #169 of 590 in NY

Livability — Averill Park

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Averill Park, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,069

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.43%
• Current HPI: 263.2196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+520.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $270,000 Global MLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $290,000 Global MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $299,999 Global MLS
• 2018-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $124,800 Public Records
• 2018-10-19 Sold (MLS) $127,200 Global MLS
• 2018-08-30 Pending — Global MLS
• 2018-07-21 Price Changed $129,900 Global MLS
• 2018-07-11 Listed $139,900 Global MLS
• 2015-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-02 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2012-10-11 Listed $128,000 Global MLS
• 2007-01-18 Sold (MLS) $114,900 Global MLS
• 2006-12-05 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2006-09-22 Listed $114,900 Global MLS
• 2001-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-01 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Global MLS
• 2001-07-06 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 1999-10-25 Listed $43,500 Global MLS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,645 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.