The Danbury I Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$475,000

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,072 sqft · SingleFamily · 512 Days on market

Good condition $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Behind the Danbury's gorgeous exterior lies a massive layout, featuring five bedrooms and inviting living areas. With the kitchen's expansive counter space and convenient sit-in island, you'll want to make all your meals at home. The upstairs primary suite showcases a luxurious bathroom and large walk-in closet for plenty of storage space. Make it your own with The Danbury's flexible floor plan. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 511 days

🏗️ New construction. The $475,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $729,485.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $475k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-678 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $475k).
• Recommended offer: $418k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.5% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 525 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,540/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 512 days — a 12% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $418,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 512 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.98%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $729,485
• List price: $475,000
• Delta: -34.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
873 County Road 375	0.36mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,037 (-1%)	11mo	$720,000	$237	65
235 Poe	0.44mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,101 (+1%)	7mo	$599,900	$193	63
165 Poe Pkwy	0.37mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,849 (-7%)	6mo	$599,900	$211	57
267 Sweet Rose	0.68mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,094 (+1%)	3mo	$549,000	$177	56
250 Matthew Path	0.44mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,325 (+8%)	3mo	$699,900	$210	54
242 Sittre Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,094 (+1%)	10mo	$515,900	$167	53
280 Sittre Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,003 (-2%)	6mo	$545,000	$181	53
117 Poe Pkwy	0.32mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,774 (-10%)	10mo	$599,990	$216	52
239 Sittre Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,324 (+8%)	2mo	$635,000	$191	47
237 Bryant Park	0.51mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,774 (-10%)	10mo	$569,990	$205	43
219 Bryant Park	0.52mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,774 (-10%)	11mo	$588,990	$212	42
145 Mary Ella Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,613 (-15%)	2mo	$625,000	$239	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-161,288
• Equity at exit: $108,769

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-195,664
• Equity at exit: $63,073

Cash invested: $204,256 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 62 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 28.6 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $630,000 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 90 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 525
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,540 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,826
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$912 /mo · $10,942/yr
• Insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,163
• Net cashflow: $-678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,398

Max offer price $631,403

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-174	-5% $-426	+0% $-678	+5% $-930	+10% $-1,182
Rent	-10% $-1,115	-5% $-897	+0% $-678	+5% $-459	+10% $-240
Rate	-1.0pp $-310	-0.5pp $-492	base $-678	+0.5pp $-867	+1.0pp $-1,059

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $182,371
• Closing costs: $21,885
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	53d	1	0.12mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	93d	1	0.88mi
169 Sage Sparrow San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2539	$2,150	$0.85	21d	1	1.28mi
162 Owl Burrow San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2223	$2,300	$1.03	18d	1	1.29mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	93d	1	1.36mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	53d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 512 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $475,000 Active 510 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $475,000 Active 509 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $475,000 Active 508 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $475,000 Active 507 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $475,000 Active 504 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $475,000 Active 502 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $475,000 Active 501 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $475,000 Active 499 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $475,000 Active 497 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $475,000 Active 496 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $475,000 Active 495 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $475,000 Active 494 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $475,000 Active 493 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $475,000 Active 491 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $475,000 Active 490 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $475,000 Active 489 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $475,000 Active 488 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $475,000 Active 487 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $475,000 Active 486 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $475,000 Active 485 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $475,000 Active 484 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $475,000 Active 483 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $475,000 Active 482 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $475,000 Active 480 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $475,000 Active 479 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $475,000 Active 478 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $475,000 Active 476 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 475 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 474 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $475,000 Active 473 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $475,000 Active 472 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $475,000 Active 471 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $475,000 Active 470 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $475,000 Active 469 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $475,000 Active 467 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $475,000 Active 465 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $475,000 Active 464 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $475,000 Active 461 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $475,000 Active 460 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $475,000 Active 459 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $475,000 Active 458 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $475,000 Active 456 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $475,000 Active 452 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $475,000 Active 451 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $475,000 Active 450 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $475,000 Active 447 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $475,000 Active 446 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    remarks 636-char remark
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 445 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,863
• − Property taxes: −$10,942
• − Insurance: −$3,647
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,318
• − Management: −$5,318
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$21,221
• Taxable loss: −$20,988
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,037
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $15,360–$46,080 screening

The Danbury I Plan in Castroville, TX is in good condition with a good exterior and landscaping. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping maintenance would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Potranco El D+ TX #833/4,322 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Medina Valley Loma Alta Middle B TX #226/1,662 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Medina Valley H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Medina · 54,332 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,494
• Household income: $102,724
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $475,000 Zillow
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $470,000 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $468,000 Zillow
• 2025-03-14 Listed $466,000 Zillow