The Danbury I Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$475,000

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,072 sqft · SingleFamily · 604 Days on market

Good condition $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Behind the Danbury's gorgeous exterior lies a massive layout, featuring five bedrooms and inviting living areas. With the kitchen's expansive counter space and convenient sit-in island, you'll want to make all your meals at home. The upstairs primary suite showcases a luxurious bathroom and large walk-in closet for plenty of storage space. Make it your own with The Danbury's flexible floor plan. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 603 days

🏗️ New construction. The $475,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $710,289.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $475k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $441k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $418k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.9% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,414/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 604 days — a 12% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $418,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 604 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.66%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $710,289
• List price: $475,000
• Delta: -33.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
873 County Road 375	0.36mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,037 (-1%)	14mo	$720,000	$237	62
235 Poe	0.44mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,101 (+1%)	10mo	$599,900	$193	61
165 Poe Pkwy	0.37mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,849 (-7%)	9mo	$599,900	$211	54
267 Sweet Rose	0.68mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,094 (+1%)	6mo	$549,000	$177	53
250 Matthew Path	0.44mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,325 (+8%)	6mo	$699,900	$210	52
242 Sittre Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,094 (+1%)	13mo	$515,900	$167	50
280 Sittre Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,003 (-2%)	9mo	$545,000	$181	50
117 Poe Pkwy	0.32mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,774 (-10%)	13mo	$599,990	$216	50
239 Sittre Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,324 (+8%)	5mo	$635,000	$191	45
237 Bryant Park	0.51mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,774 (-10%)	13mo	$569,990	$205	41
219 Bryant Park	0.52mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,774 (-10%)	14mo	$588,990	$212	39
145 Mary Ella Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,613 (-15%)	5mo	$625,000	$239	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-206,395
• Equity at exit: $105,906

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-297,078
• Equity at exit: $61,413

Cash invested: $198,881 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 62 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 28.6 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $592,945 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 131 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,414 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,725
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$888 /mo · $10,654/yr
• Insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$927
• Net cashflow: $-1,435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,230

Max offer price $502,696

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-944	-5% $-1,189	+0% $-1,435	+5% $-1,680	+10% $-1,925
Rent	-10% $-1,783	-5% $-1,609	+0% $-1,435	+5% $-1,260	+10% $-1,086
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,077	-0.5pp $-1,254	base $-1,435	+0.5pp $-1,619	+1.0pp $-1,806

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $177,572
• Closing costs: $21,309
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$5,500	$1.37	74d	1	0.12mi
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$5,500	$1.37	10d	1	0.12mi
319 County Road 386 San Antonio, TX	4.0	4.0	2462	$2,700	$1.10	45d	1	0.80mi
164 Jereth Xing Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2337	$2,575	$1.10	2d	1	0.86mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	184d	1	0.88mi
797 Lilly Blf San Antonio, TX	5.0	5.0	4483	$4,800	$1.07	10d	1	1.20mi
246 Kildeer Crk San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2638	$2,050	$0.78	7d	1	1.26mi
169 Sage Sparrow San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2539	$2,150	$0.85	112d	1	1.28mi
162 Owl Burrow San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2223	$2,100	$0.94	10d	1	1.29mi
208 Wild Duck San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,300	$0.97	47d	1	1.32mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	185d	1	1.36mi
164 Western Gull Dr San Antonio, TX	5.0	3.0	2498	$2,600	$1.04	10d	1	1.38mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	145d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 604 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $475,000 Active 603 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $475,000 Active 602 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $475,000 Active 601 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $475,000 Active 600 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $475,000 Active 598 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $475,000 Active 597 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $475,000 Active 596 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $475,000 Active 595 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $475,000 Active 594 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $475,000 Active 593 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $475,000 Active 592 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $475,000 Active 591 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $475,000 Active 590 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $475,000 Active 589 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $475,000 Active 588 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $475,000 Active 587 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $475,000 Active 586 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $475,000 Active 585 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $475,000 Active 584 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $475,000 Active 583 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $475,000 Active 582 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $475,000 Active 581 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $475,000 Active 580 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $475,000 Active 579 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $475,000 Active 578 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $475,000 Active 577 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $475,000 Active 576 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $475,000 Active 575 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $475,000 Active 574 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $475,000 Active 573 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $475,000 Active 572 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $475,000 Active 571 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $475,000 Active 570 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $475,000 Active 569 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $475,000 Active 568 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 567 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 566 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $475,000 Active 565 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $475,000 Active 564 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $475,000 Active 563 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $475,000 Active 562 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $475,000 Active 560 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $475,000 Active 559 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $475,000 Active 558 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $475,000 Active 557 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $475,000 Active 556 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $475,000 Active 555 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $475,000 Active 554 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $475,000 Active 553 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,787
• − Property taxes: −$10,654
• − Insurance: −$3,551
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,237
• − Management: −$4,237
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$20,663
• Taxable loss: −$30,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,277
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $15,360–$46,080 screening

The Danbury I Plan in Castroville, TX is in good condition with a good exterior and landscaping. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping maintenance would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Potranco El D+ TX #833/4,322 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Medina Valley Loma Alta Middle B TX #226/1,662 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Medina Valley H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Medina · 54,332 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,494
• Household income: $102,724
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $475,000 Zillow
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $470,000 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $468,000 Zillow
• 2025-03-14 Listed $466,000 Zillow