14410 Muirfield Ln · Houston, TX 77095

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 280 Days on market

Built 1979 8,511 sqft lot $126/sqft · 13% below area Est $329k · 13% under $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 garage property with fresh paint in & out, new roof shingles, and new vinyl plank flooring on both floors. The first floor boasts a large kitchen with wet-bar, spacious den with fireplace and high ceilings, 2 dining areas, and the primary bedroom suite. The upstairs has 2 bedrooms and a convenient hall bath. The back yard is fenced with a concrete patio.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New roof shingles
• Large kitchen

Tags

• FRESH PAINT
• NEW ROOF SHINGLES
• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• LARGE KITCHEN
• WET-BAR
• SPACIOUS DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-458 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Owens El (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 774 students, 77% FRL); Labay Middle (math 46% / reading 47%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,199 students, 70% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 335 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13471% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $285k implies a 228% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,108 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,594
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -13.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7614 Virginia Water Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	2,359 (+4%)	4mo	$320,000	$136	82
7203 W Hearthstone Green Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,270 (+0%)	4mo	$300,000	$132	74
8003 Oceanside Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5	2,127 (-6%)	1mo	$299,000	$141	73
7306 Creek Crest Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,285 (+1%)	7mo	$315,000	$138	68
7823 Autumn Hollow Ln	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,310 (+2%)	3mo	$364,900	$158	66
7639 Ameswood Rd	0.25mi	3/2.5	2,532 (+12%)	2mo	$374,700	$148	65
7111 Winding Walk Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,174 (-4%)	3mo	$342,500	$158	60
7618 Mauna Kai Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,544 (+12%)	7mo	$397,000	$156	57
7314 Muirfield Valley Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,555 (+13%)	7mo	$375,000	$147	52
7406 Bull Creek Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,997 (-12%)	3mo	$339,999	$170	51
7802 Autumn Hollow Ln	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,560 (+13%)	0mo	$360,000	$141	49
7210 Winding Walk Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,470 (+9%)	0mo	$383,900	$155	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.94% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-51,681
• Equity at exit: $69,542

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-65,704
• Equity at exit: $73,663

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77095

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,092 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$453 /mo · $5,440/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,672

Max offer price $204,108

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-297	-5% $-377	+0% $-458	+5% $-539	+10% $-619
Rent	-10% $-623	-5% $-541	+0% $-458	+5% $-375	+10% $-293
Rate	-1.0pp $-314	-0.5pp $-385	base $-458	+0.5pp $-532	+1.0pp $-607

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7451 Tunbury Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2630	$2,171	$0.83	9d	1	0.19mi
7331 Millbrae Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2481	$1,779	$0.72	3d	1	0.43mi
7511 Stamen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1575	$2,350	$1.49	45d	1	0.64mi
14818 Chetland Place Dr Unit CHEP18-1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2490	$2,100	$0.84	45d	1	0.71mi
8335 Columbia Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1767	$2,000	$1.13	45d	1	0.71mi
14623 Sanour Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2032	$2,170	$1.07	7d	1	0.86mi
15255 Farm to Market Road 529 #525 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,119	$1.28	0d	1	1.05mi
15255 Farm to Market Road 529 #3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,170	$1.31	13d	1	1.05mi
15255 Farm to Market Road 529 #15288 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,170	$1.31	45d	1	1.05mi
7415 Broken Ridge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2416	$2,245	$0.93	45d	1	1.06mi
8738 Willancy Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2636	$2,400	$0.91	45d	1	1.08mi
6803 Hedgewick Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2336	$2,550	$1.09	24d	1	1.11mi
15111 Falmouth Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1674	$1,850	$1.11	45d	1	1.22mi
15022 Mulberry Meadows Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1832	$1,905	$1.04	1d	1	1.25mi
6607 Readsland Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,500	$1.36	45d	1	1.31mi
15022 Ringfield Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2064	$1,975	$0.96	45d	1	1.42mi
6685 Kentwick Dr #210 Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,870	$1.04	9d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 280 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 279 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 278 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 277 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 274 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 271 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 266 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 265 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 262 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $2,050
16. 2026-03-24
    listed $2,100
17. 2026-03-20
    price $285,000 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 garage property with fresh paint in & out, new roof shingles, and new vinyl plank flooring on both floors. The first floor boasts a large kitchen with wet-bar, spacious den with fireplace and high ceilings, 2 dining areas, and the primary bedroom suite. The upstairs has 2 bedrooms and a convenient hall bath. The back yard is fenced with a concrete patio.

18. 2026-01-21
    price $294,500 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 garage property with fresh paint in & out, new roof shingles, and new vinyl plank flooring on both floors. The first floor boasts a large kitchen with wet-bar, spacious den with fireplace and high ceilings, 2 dining areas, and the primary bedroom suite. The upstairs has 2 bedrooms and a convenient hall bath. The back yard is fenced with a concrete patio.

19. 2025-11-07
    price $299,500 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 garage property with fresh paint in & out, new roof shingles, and new vinyl plank flooring on both floors. The first floor boasts a large kitchen with wet-bar, spacious den with fireplace and high ceilings, 2 dining areas, and the primary bedroom suite. The upstairs has 2 bedrooms and a convenient hall bath. The back yard is fenced with a concrete patio.

20. 2025-09-11
    listed $305,000 Active 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 garage property with fresh paint in & out, new roof shingles, and new vinyl plank flooring on both floors. The first floor boasts a large kitchen with wet-bar, spacious den with fireplace and high ceilings, 2 dining areas, and the primary bedroom suite. The upstairs has 2 bedrooms and a convenient hall bath. The back yard is fenced with a concrete patio.

21. 1998-09-11
    soldstatus
22. 1992-04-01
    soldstatus $86,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,440 · $453/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,440 · $453/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$5,440
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,008
• − Management: −$2,008
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$10,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,534
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,767
• Household income: $91,594
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 5% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Current HPI: 236.0249
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $2,050 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $294,500 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $299,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $305,000 HARMLS
• 1998-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $86,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,440 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.