Briar Plan · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$560,490

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,151 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Aspen at Cypress?featuring single- and two-story homes with 3?5 bedrooms and 6 flexible floorplans. Experience thoughtful design, smart features, and spaces built to support family, wellness, and everyday happiness. Step into a home that fits your lifestyle at Aspen at Cypress in Rancho Cordova. Offering a collection of six flexible single- and two-story floorplans, Aspen blends modern design with everyday function to meet the evolving needs of today?s families. Ranging from 1,933 to 2,715 square feet, these thoughtfully crafted homes feature 3?5 bedrooms and 2.5?3 bathrooms?providing the perfect fit for everything from first-time buyers to growing households and multigenerational living. Choose from a variety of layouts, including spacious open-concept living areas, large kitchen islands, and optional Work+ spaces that make working from home feel like a breeze. Whether you need a quiet corner for productivity, a playroom for the kids, or an extra bedroom for guests or aging parents?Aspen gives you the flexibility to make your space your own. Want even more personalization? Add Living Well Solutions, our exclusive lifestyle upgrades designed to make daily life smoother, cleaner, and happier. From pet-friendly nooks to smart storage, luxe laundry, and healthy home features, you can create a sanctuary that supports the way you live. Set in the master-planned Cypress community, Aspen is minutes from major highways, shopping, trails, and top-rated schools?so your family can enjoy convenience without sacrificing connection to nature or neighborhood. Built with Woodside Homes? commitment to energy efficiency and healthy design, every Aspen home helps you feel good about where you live?now and for years to come. Single- & Two-Story Homes | 3?5 Beds, 2.5?3 Baths | Explore 6 Flexible Floorplans Designed for Comfort, Connection & Customization

Key facts

• Pet-friendly nooks
• Optional work spaces
• Smart storage

Tags

• FLEXIBLE FLOORPLANS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREAS
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLANDS
• OPTIONAL WORK SPACES
• PET-FRIENDLY NOOKS
• SMART STORAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $560,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $642,614.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $560k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (33.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (41.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (41.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: commute C-, crime D, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary (math 65% / reading 67%, grade B+, #176 of 1,571 statewide, top 11%, 966 students, 21% FRL); Katherine L. Albiani Middle (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B+, #57 of 498 statewide, top 12%, 1,307 students, 27% FRL); Pleasant Grove High (math 57% / reading 74%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,520 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 43% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $64k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$110k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,595 (41.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.46%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $642,614
• List price: $560,490
• Delta: -12.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12713 Mission Peak Way	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,054 (-4%)	1mo	$625,000	$304	87
4316 Castle Crag St	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,264 (+5%)	2mo	$647,000	$286	82
4409 Canyon Coral Way	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,349 (+9%)	1mo	$609,990	$260	73
4356 Arctic Tern Cir	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,185 (+2%)	0mo	$610,000	$279	71
4387 Arctic Tern Cir	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,185 (+2%)	0mo	$638,000	$292	70
4341 Moro Canyon St	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,334 (+8%)	1mo	$674,990	$289	65
4078 Magenta Bloom Way	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,285 (+6%)	2mo	$639,000	$280	63
4454 Greenshank Way	0.52mi	4/2.5	1,900 (-12%)	0mo	$515,000	$271	56
12755 Blueblanc Way	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (-9%)	2mo	$634,500	$325	56
12913 Knightsbrook Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (-9%)	2mo	$656,000	$336	54
4587 Duckhawk Cir	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,944 (-10%)	1mo	$574,999	$296	53
4622 Duckhawk Cir	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,873 (-13%)	1mo	$590,000	$315	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $228,025
• Equity at exit: $578,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $759,355
• Equity at exit: $1,248,459

Cash invested: $179,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,256 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,370
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$803 /mo · $9,639/yr
• Insurance: −$268
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-1,869

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,621

Max offer price $372,201

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,425	-5% $-1,647	+0% $-1,869	+5% $-2,091	+10% $-2,313
Rent	-10% $-2,126	-5% $-1,997	+0% $-1,869	+5% $-1,740	+10% $-1,612
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,545	-0.5pp $-1,705	base $-1,869	+0.5pp $-2,035	+1.0pp $-2,205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $160,654
• Closing costs: $19,278
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4328 Greenshank Cir Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,100	$1.72	45d	1	0.25mi
12647 Spotted Wren Way Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.0	2609	$3,450	$1.32	45d	1	0.30mi
4430 Lorikeet Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	2520	$3,100	$1.23	45d	1	0.41mi
12658 Rosefinch Way Unit 1 Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.5	2466	$2,800	$1.14	0d	1	0.46mi
4454 Greenshank Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,795	$1.47	0d	1	0.50mi
4480 Arctic Tern Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2550	$3,000	$1.18	45d	1	0.56mi
12855 Daylily Coast Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2745	$3,400	$1.24	14d	1	0.73mi
4143 Cahakia Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,795	$1.69	45d	1	0.84mi
12579 Bellmead Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,650	$1.65	5d	1	1.26mi
3686 Rockdale Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1880	$2,795	$1.49	9d	1	1.36mi
12153 Coal Creek Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,750	$1.44	16d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $560,490 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $560,490 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $560,490 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $560,490 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $560,490 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $560,490 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $560,490 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $560,490 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $560,490 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $560,490 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $560,490 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $560,490 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $560,490 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $560,490 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $560,490 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $560,490 1888-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1888 chars)

    Welcome to Aspen at Cypress?featuring single- and two-story homes with 3?5 bedrooms and 6 flexible floorplans. Experience thoughtful design, smart features, and spaces built to support family, wellness, and everyday happiness. Step into a home that fits your lifestyle at Aspen at Cypress in Rancho Cordova. Offering a collection of six flexible single- and two-story floorplans, Aspen blends modern design with everyday function to meet the evolving needs of today?s families. Ranging from 1,933 to 2,715 square feet, these thoughtfully crafted homes feature 3?5 bedrooms and 2.5?3 bathrooms?providing the perfect fit for everything from first-time buyers to growing households and multigenerational living. Choose from a variety of layouts, including spacious open-concept living areas, large kitchen islands, and optional Work+ spaces that make working from home feel like a breeze. Whether you need a quiet corner for productivity, a playroom for the kids, or an extra bedroom for guests or aging parents?Aspen gives you the flexibility to make your space your own. Want even more personalization? Add Living Well Solutions, our exclusive lifestyle upgrades designed to make daily life smoother, cleaner, and happier. From pet-friendly nooks to smart storage, luxe laundry, and healthy home features, you can create a sanctuary that supports the way you live. Set in the master-planned Cypress community, Aspen is minutes from major highways, shopping, trails, and top-rated schools?so your family can enjoy convenience without sacrificing connection to nature or neighborhood. Built with Woodside Homes? commitment to energy efficiency and healthy design, every Aspen home helps you feel good about where you live?now and for years to come. Single- & Two-Story Homes | 3?5 Beds, 2.5?3 Baths | Explore 6 Flexible Floorplans Designed for Comfort, Connection & Customization

17. 2026-04-13
    listed $552,990 Active 1888-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1888 chars)

    Welcome to Aspen at Cypress?featuring single- and two-story homes with 3?5 bedrooms and 6 flexible floorplans. Experience thoughtful design, smart features, and spaces built to support family, wellness, and everyday happiness. Step into a home that fits your lifestyle at Aspen at Cypress in Rancho Cordova. Offering a collection of six flexible single- and two-story floorplans, Aspen blends modern design with everyday function to meet the evolving needs of today?s families. Ranging from 1,933 to 2,715 square feet, these thoughtfully crafted homes feature 3?5 bedrooms and 2.5?3 bathrooms?providing the perfect fit for everything from first-time buyers to growing households and multigenerational living. Choose from a variety of layouts, including spacious open-concept living areas, large kitchen islands, and optional Work+ spaces that make working from home feel like a breeze. Whether you need a quiet corner for productivity, a playroom for the kids, or an extra bedroom for guests or aging parents?Aspen gives you the flexibility to make your space your own. Want even more personalization? Add Living Well Solutions, our exclusive lifestyle upgrades designed to make daily life smoother, cleaner, and happier. From pet-friendly nooks to smart storage, luxe laundry, and healthy home features, you can create a sanctuary that supports the way you live. Set in the master-planned Cypress community, Aspen is minutes from major highways, shopping, trails, and top-rated schools?so your family can enjoy convenience without sacrificing connection to nature or neighborhood. Built with Woodside Homes? commitment to energy efficiency and healthy design, every Aspen home helps you feel good about where you live?now and for years to come. Single- & Two-Story Homes | 3?5 Beds, 2.5?3 Baths | Explore 6 Flexible Floorplans Designed for Comfort, Connection & Customization

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,996
• − Property taxes: −$9,639
• − Insurance: −$3,213
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,126
• − Management: −$3,126
• − Depreciation: −$18,694
• Taxable loss: −$34,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,334
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $560,490 Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Listed $552,990 Zillow