13047 Lake Fryer · St. Hedwig, TX 78152

$189,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $126/sqft · 28% below area Est $264k · 28% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Timms- This convenient single-story plan opens to three secondary bedrooms framing the entryway. Down the hall, an open peninsula-style kitchen overlooks an inviting dining area and a spacious family room, ideal for seamless modern living. The owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner to provide a serene retreat, featuring a bedroom, attached bathroom and a walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Spring Grove
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $200 annually; Association transfer fee $450; Neighborhood amenities: Other (see remarks)

Exterior

• Utilities: Water system available; Sewer system available; Gas service by Centric; Electricity by CPS
• Home design: Single-family home (new construction by Lennar); Cement fiber exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Approximately 1 year old
• Construction: Built by Lennar; New construction; Cement fiber exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Privacy fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen approximately 7 x 6; Stove/Range; Dishwasher; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bath; Bedroom 2 approximately 10 x 12; Bedroom 3 approximately 10 x 11; Bedroom 4 approximately 10 x 11; Primary bedroom approximately 11 x 13
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bath is shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and natural gas heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Breakfast bar; One living area; Utility/utility room inside; Cable TV available; All bedrooms on lower level; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.0% in St. Hedwig — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tradition El (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 993 students, 51% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,815 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.41%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,603
• List price: $189,500
• Delta: -28.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13039 Lake Fryer	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	2mo	$235,999	$159	97
12927 Blue Hole	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-3%)	23mo	$173,499	$120	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $20,580
• Equity at exit: $67,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $59,648
• Equity at exit: $91,081

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78152

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,842/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,679

Max offer price $189,500

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,500 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,500 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,500 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,500 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,500 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,500 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,500 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,500 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,500 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,500 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $189,500 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,500 Price Change 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,500 Price Change 32 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    listed $190,000 New 508-char remark
15. 2026-04-20
    soldstatus Sold 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    The Timms- This convenient single-story plan opens to three secondary bedrooms framing the entryway. Down the hall, an open peninsula-style kitchen overlooks an inviting dining area and a spacious family room, ideal for seamless modern living. The owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner to provide a serene retreat, featuring a bedroom, attached bathroom and a walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2026-03-04
    status Pending 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    The Timms- This convenient single-story plan opens to three secondary bedrooms framing the entryway. Down the hall, an open peninsula-style kitchen overlooks an inviting dining area and a spacious family room, ideal for seamless modern living. The owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner to provide a serene retreat, featuring a bedroom, attached bathroom and a walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2026-02-24
    price $218,499 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    The Timms- This convenient single-story plan opens to three secondary bedrooms framing the entryway. Down the hall, an open peninsula-style kitchen overlooks an inviting dining area and a spacious family room, ideal for seamless modern living. The owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner to provide a serene retreat, featuring a bedroom, attached bathroom and a walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2026-01-19
    listed $223,499 New 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    The Timms- This convenient single-story plan opens to three secondary bedrooms framing the entryway. Down the hall, an open peninsula-style kitchen overlooks an inviting dining area and a spacious family room, ideal for seamless modern living. The owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner to provide a serene retreat, featuring a bedroom, attached bathroom and a walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$2,842
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable income: $984
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$236
• After-tax cash flow: $3,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor cosmetic improvements to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Add a small front porch or bench — Improves curb appeal and can be used as a seating area

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add a small front porch or bench — Improves curb appeal and can be used as a seating area ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — St. Hedwig

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Hedwig, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 3,958
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,521
• Household income: $123,981
• Rent vs Own: 16.6% rent · 83.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 27.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 21% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 328.7859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.90%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $189,500 LERA
• 2026-04-29 Listed $190,000 LERA
• 2026-04-20 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2026-03-04 Pending — LERA
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $218,499 LERA
• 2026-01-19 Listed $223,499 LERA