7718 W Pam Ct · Sugarmill Woods, FL 34448

$79,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $84k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CALL AGENT

Key facts

• Built 1971
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 4.0% in Sugarmill Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#825 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 307 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $80k implies a 433% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,599 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.61%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7749 W Chassahowitzka St	0.04mi	3/1.5 (+1)	720 (+7%)	0mo	$112,500	$156	79
11350 S Lily Pad Pt	0.26mi	2/1.0	700 (+4%)	12mo	$80,000	$114	71
11351 S Ann Pt	0.24mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	10mo	$90,000	$125	69
7749 W Chassahowitzka St	0.04mi	3/1.5 (+1)	720 (+7%)	19mo	$75,000	$104	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $2,465
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $22,724
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34448

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $656/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,182

Max offer price $79,999

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $261	+0% $238	+5% $216	+10% $193
Rent	-10% $121	-5% $180	+0% $238	+5% $297	+10% $355
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $259	base $238	+0.5pp $217	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7749 W Chassahowitzka St Homosassa, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,350	$1.88	18d	1	0.04mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,999 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,999 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,999 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,999 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,999 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,999 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,999 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,999 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,999 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,999 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,999 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,999 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,999 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,999 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $79,999 Active
16. 2016-02-12
    soldstatus $15,000 10-char remark

    Show marketing remark (10 chars)

    CALL AGENT

17. 2016-02-05
    listed $15,000 10-char remark

    Show marketing remark (10 chars)

    CALL AGENT

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $664 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$8/yr (+$1/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$656
• − Insurance: −$5,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $1,975
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$474
• After-tax cash flow: $2,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sugarmill Woods

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #825
• US rank: #20184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 18,797
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,817
• Household income: $45,916
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 113.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.27%
• Current HPI: 312.4302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+433.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $79,999 FSBO.com
• 2016-02-12 Sold (MLS) $15,000 RACC
• 2016-02-05 Listed $15,000 RACC

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $656 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.