3169 N US Highway 129 · Bell, FL 32619

$214,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1973 7.00 ac lot $149/sqft · at area comps Est $225k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

LARGE GRANDDADDY OAKS and shady back yard. .. .. Tucked away in the peaceful countryside of Bell, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on 7 BEAUTIFUL ACRES with paved road frontage, offering the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The property features a mix of open, cleared pasture and a scenic wooded area filled with native hardwoods—ideal for enjoying nature, recreation, or creating your own mini farm. The home was thoughtfully updated in 2016, providing modern comfort while maintaining its inviting character. A large great room with gas fireplace will be the room your family will love. A whole-house generator offers added peace of mind, ensuring you’re always prepared no matter the season. Stretching the full length of the home, a spacious screened porch provides the perfect spot to relax, entertain, and take in the tranquil surroundings year-round. Additional improvements include a metal garage/workshop, perfect for hobbies, storage, or equipment, as well as a convenient 2-car carport. With plenty of room to roam, garden, or bring animals, this property offers endless possibilities for country living while still being just a short drive to nearby amenities. Don’t miss your chance to own a slice of North Florida paradise!

Key facts

• 7 acres
• Paved road frontage
• Metal garage

Tags

• 7 ACRES
• PAVED ROAD FRONTAGE
• CLEARED PASTURE
• WHOLE-HOUSE GENERATOR
• SPACIOUS SCREENED PORCH
• METAL GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.9% in Bell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#767 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Gilchrist (rural): math 66% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #9 of 73 in FL (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 94 units permitted in Gilchrist County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Gilchrist County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.09%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,000
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: -4.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $142,429
• Equity at exit: $193,218

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.63×
• Total profit: $398,827
• Equity at exit: $416,278

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32619

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,135 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $774/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $527	-5% $467	+0% $406	+5% $345	+10% $284
Rent	-10% $237	-5% $321	+0% $406	+5% $490	+10% $574
Rate	-1.0pp $514	-0.5pp $460	base $406	+0.5pp $350	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1925 N Roberts Trl Bell, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,000	$1.35	22d	1	1.28mi
1901 N Roberts Trl Bell, FL	3.0	2.0	1777	$2,300	$1.29	22d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $214,900 Pending 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $214,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   price $214,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $224,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $224,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-04-14
    listed $224,900 Active 1276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1276 chars)

    LARGE GRANDDADDY OAKS and shady back yard. .. .. Tucked away in the peaceful countryside of Bell, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on 7 BEAUTIFUL ACRES with paved road frontage, offering the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The property features a mix of open, cleared pasture and a scenic wooded area filled with native hardwoods—ideal for enjoying nature, recreation, or creating your own mini farm. The home was thoughtfully updated in 2016, providing modern comfort while maintaining its inviting character. A large great room with gas fireplace will be the room your family will love. A whole-house generator offers added peace of mind, ensuring you’re always prepared no matter the season. Stretching the full length of the home, a spacious screened porch provides the perfect spot to relax, entertain, and take in the tranquil surroundings year-round. Additional improvements include a metal garage/workshop, perfect for hobbies, storage, or equipment, as well as a convenient 2-car carport. With plenty of room to roam, garden, or bring animals, this property offers endless possibilities for country living while still being just a short drive to nearby amenities. Don’t miss your chance to own a slice of North Florida paradise!

13. 2026-04-14
    listed $224,900 Active 1276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1276 chars)

    LARGE GRANDDADDY OAKS and shady back yard. .. .. Tucked away in the peaceful countryside of Bell, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on 7 BEAUTIFUL ACRES with paved road frontage, offering the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The property features a mix of open, cleared pasture and a scenic wooded area filled with native hardwoods—ideal for enjoying nature, recreation, or creating your own mini farm. The home was thoughtfully updated in 2016, providing modern comfort while maintaining its inviting character. A large great room with gas fireplace will be the room your family will love. A whole-house generator offers added peace of mind, ensuring you’re always prepared no matter the season. Stretching the full length of the home, a spacious screened porch provides the perfect spot to relax, entertain, and take in the tranquil surroundings year-round. Additional improvements include a metal garage/workshop, perfect for hobbies, storage, or equipment, as well as a convenient 2-car carport. With plenty of room to roam, garden, or bring animals, this property offers endless possibilities for country living while still being just a short drive to nearby amenities. Don’t miss your chance to own a slice of North Florida paradise!

14. 2026-04-13
    listed $224,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $774 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,010/yr (+$84/mo · 130.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$774
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,050
• − Management: −$2,050
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable income: $1,384
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$332
• After-tax cash flow: $4,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilchrist
• NCES district ID: 1200630
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,610
• Composite: 53.01/100
• National rank: #1522
• State rank: #9 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bell

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #767
• US rank: #17229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,227
• Population (ZIP): 5,227

Population outlook (Gilchrist County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,730 people
• By 2030: 17,722 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 17,393 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 16,597 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 14,300 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 11,498 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gilchrist

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.98%
• Current HPI: 404.4164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $224,900 NFMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $224,900 DGLMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $774 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.