415 Mineral St · Dawson Springs, KY 42408

$39,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1945 0.64 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious 4br 1ba home sits on a corner lot in a convenient location near the school and is ready for a new owner to bring it back to life. With 2 bedrooms on main floor, 2 upstairs, and an unfinished basement there's plenty of room to re-imagine the space. Laundry was moved from basement to the kitchen and can be returned to basement if needed. The property is being sold AS-IS and will require extensive TLC, A great opportunity for buyers looking to add value and create something special. Includes a very large lot with its own private drive on the left of the home. Cash or conventional financing only.

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Corner lot
• Private drive

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• PRIVATE DRIVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; 2 stories
• Construction: Masonite exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $822 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#207 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dawson Springs Independent (rural): math 22% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #148 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.25%
• DSCR: 4.93
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $106,560
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 S Main St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,520 (+6%)	4mo	$90,000	$59	77
197 Park Ave	0.17mi	4/1.0	1,588 (+10%)	10mo	$90,144	$57	67
610 N Russell St	0.38mi	4/1.0	1,248 (-13%)	9mo	$140,000	$112	53
211 E Railroad	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-6%)	22mo	$125,000	$92	50
505 Lynch St	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,545 (+7%)	23mo	$115,000	$74	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $45,883
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.62×
• Total profit: $107,420
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42408

• Home prices YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,389 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    price $39,900
17. 2026-02-17
    price $44,900
18. 2026-02-02
    price $55,000
19. 2026-01-06
    listed $60,000 Active
20. 1996-10-01
    soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,333
• − Management: −$1,333
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,808
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,354
• After-tax cash flow: $7,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dawson Springs Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101500
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $26,043
• Composite: 20.16/100
• National rank: #8635
• State rank: #148 of 165 in KY

Livability — Dawson Springs

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #10195

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dawson Springs, KY
• City population: 6,167
• Population (ZIP): 6,167

Population outlook (Hopkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,164 people
• By 2030: 44,083 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 41,650 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 39,303 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 34,567 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 29,476 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 23.9% · R 74.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.9pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+54.0 2012: R+39.9 2008: R+24.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.70%
• Current HPI: 240.3026
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $39,900 MHCBOR
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $44,900 MHCBOR
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $55,000 MHCBOR
• 2026-01-06 Listed $60,000 MHCBOR
• 1996-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records