809 White Oak Dr · O'Fallon, IL 62269

$265,000

None bd · 4.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1979 9,147 sqft lot Est $292k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PART OF INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO SALE.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• Built 1979

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Multifamily/residential income use; Address: 809 White Oak Dr, O'Fallon, IL 62269
• Financial info: Annual taxes reported (2024)

Exterior

• Home design: Residential income property (2–4 units); Single building with about 2,040 above-grade finished area (assessor)
• Construction: Built with other/unspecified construction materials
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 0.21 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: No main or upper level bedrooms listed
• Bathrooms: No main or upper level bathrooms listed
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a ?-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• O Fallon Twp Hsd 203 (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #145 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,783 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.69%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1004 Illini Dr	0.35mi	3/3.5	1,956 (-4%)	8mo	$299,900	$153	68
613 W Jefferson St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,998 (-2%)	0mo	$250,000	$125	65
202 N Vine St	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,100 (+3%)	7mo	$274,900	$131	55
720 Westbrook Ct	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,904 (-7%)	4mo	$185,000	$97	51
412 Fontainebleau	0.57mi	3/2.0	2,214 (+8%)	0mo	$285,000	$129	51
418 W 3rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,954 (-4%)	2mo	$278,900	$143	50
302 W 3rd St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,957 (-4%)	7mo	$140,000	$72	47
708 N Smiley St	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,264 (+11%)	1mo	$229,900	$102	44
612 Wheatfield Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,869 (-8%)	0mo	$359,900	$193	43
604 N Smiley St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,850 (-9%)	2mo	$270,000	$146	42
403 Fontainebleau	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,810 (-11%)	8mo	$259,900	$144	42
305 Frontenac Rd	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,258 (+11%)	2mo	$469,900	$208	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-49,692
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-27,612
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62269

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,053/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,326

Max offer price $224,723

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Spartan CIR O'Fallon, IL	2.0	2.0	1459	$2,260	$1.55	1d	32	0.12mi
506 E Jefferson St O Fallon, IL	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,800	$1.11	1d	1	0.67mi
313 S Oak St O Fallon, IL	3.0	1.5	1700	$1,650	$0.97	7d	1	0.78mi
935 Natasha Cir O Fallon, IL	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,750	$1.53	1d	1	0.78mi
901 E 3rd St O Fallon, IL	3.0	1.5	1662	$2,000	$1.20	1d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   statusdays on market $265,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 153-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $265,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,053 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,034 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: +$981/yr (+$82/mo · 24.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$4,053
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,956
• − Management: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$7,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,774
• After-tax cash flow: $-962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: O Fallon Twp Hsd 203
• NCES district ID: 1729790
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $82,945
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5240
• State rank: #145 of 620 in IL

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: O'Fallon, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 35,536
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 35,923
• Household income: $103,818
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1233.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.35%
• Current HPI: 177.759
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.64%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Coming Soon $265,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-05 Listed $265,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,053 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.