13 Magnolia Rd · Palm Coast, FL 32137

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2019 5,998 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great AirBNB income property, averages only 5 days a month vacant!!! Over 5,300k as of 7/20 since May. This is a must see in person. Located in the Beautiful Hammock Area of Palm Coast, Walking or Bike Riding Distance to the Beautiful Atlantic Ocean Beaches! Everything is virtually New. Open Floor Plan, Beautiful Kitchen with Stainless Steel Appliances and Eating Bar. Cathedral Ceilings, Crown Moldings and Luxury Vinyl throughout. Large Walk-in Closet in Master and a Partially Fenced in Yard.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Cathedral ceilings
• Beach-side living

Tags

• BEACH-SIDE LIVING
• PROVEN AIRBNB PERFORMER
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• CROWN MOLDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoning: MH-1
• HOA & community: Not in a development; No association/HOA

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; One-story; Southeast-facing; Built on stilts/piling
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Stilt/On piling foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (1 story)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Old Kings Elementary School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 979 students, 52% FRL); Matanzas High School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,978 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1600 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,721 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.33%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-37,633
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-36,427
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32137

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1600
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,597 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,606/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,317

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Dawson Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	23d	1	0.28mi
25 Riverview Bnd N Unit 1546088P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,581	$1.42	14d	1	0.58mi
115 Riverview Bnd S #2145 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$3,000	$1.90	2d	1	0.63mi
115 Riverview Bnd S #2145 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$3,000	$1.90	14d	1	0.63mi
900 Cinnamon Beach Way Unit 1261621P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1689	$8,231	$4.87	23d	1	0.65mi
35 Captains Walk Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1565	$2,400	$1.53	23d	1	0.81mi
102 Yacht Harbor Dr #264 Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1570	$3,450	$2.20	2d	1	0.87mi
35 Ocean Crest Way #1124 Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1264	$3,500	$2.77	23d	1	0.95mi
200 Ocean Crest Dr #1111 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	1818	$7,000	$3.85	23d	1	0.99mi
14 Cedarview Ct Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$2,200	$1.50	23d	1	1.07mi
87 Club House Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$2,500	$1.98	23d	1	1.14mi
24 Claridge Ct S Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1817	$3,600	$1.98	23d	1	1.14mi
100 Palm Harbor Pkwy #29 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,000	$1.37	23d	1	1.24mi
20 Sabal Bnd Unit 1 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1466	$2,100	$1.43	21d	1	1.25mi
214 Coral Reef Ct N Unit B Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	2d	1	1.27mi
101 Palm Harbor Pkwy Unit A404 Palm Coast, FL	2.0	1.5	1600	$1,700	$1.06	23d	1	1.29mi
11 Avenue de la Mer #1205 Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$3,000	$2.01	23d	1	1.36mi
58 Club House Dr Palm Coast, FL	2.0	1.5	1216	$1,795	$1.48	23d	1	1.42mi
9 Collinson Ct Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,250	$1.76	2d	1	1.46mi
56 Club House Dr #107 Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	986	$1,700	$1.72	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $285,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,606 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,606 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,606
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,493
• − Management: −$2,493
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$2,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$506
• After-tax cash flow: $3,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,391
• Household income: $83,923
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 816.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Russian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.27%
• Current HPI: 290.4607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+630.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-09 Listing Removed — Daytona MLS
• 2020-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-30 Sold (MLS) $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-08 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-23 Listed $239,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-03 Listed $239,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-04 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2012-10-28 Listed $69,000 Daytona MLS
• 2005-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+23.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,606 · +18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.