13291 E 40 St · Fortuna Foothills, AZ 85367

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 564 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $118k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment property for income. 2 dwellings 1 single-wide and a park model. Singlewide has add on creating a 2nd bedroom and living area. Park model has new HVAC, 20gal hot water heater and a slide out.

Key facts

• Plentiful storage
• Fresh paint
• Enclosed addition

Tags

• MULTIGENERATIONAL LIVING
• ENCLOSED ADDITION
• NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• SPACIOUS WALK IN CLOSET
• PLENTIFUL STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Microwave; Dishwasher; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Microwave; Dishwasher; Electric range; Washer; Dryer; Smoke detector(s); Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.2% in Fortuna Foothills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#174 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Yuma Union High School District (4507) (urban): math 14% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #212 of 249 in AZ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gila Ridge High School (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #263 of 381 statewide, top 70%, 2,309 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 415 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $108k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,470 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.95%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,876
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13223 E 38 Pl	0.23mi	2/2.0	573 (+2%)	5mo	$120,000	$209	79
13249 E 43 Dr	0.40mi	1/1.0 (-1)	576 (+2%)	14mo	$128,000	$222	61
13239 E 43 Ln	0.45mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (+8%)	3mo	$139,000	$229	59
13180 E 39 St	0.25mi	1/1.0 (-1)	622 (+10%)	11mo	$120,000	$193	57
12873 E 36 Way	0.52mi	2/1.0	528 (-6%)	10mo	$148,000	$280	57
13388 E 43 St	0.34mi	2/1.0	627 (+11%)	18mo	$130,000	$207	51
12861 E 36 Way	0.52mi	2/2.0	576 (+2%)	22mo	$109,000	$189	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,721
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $17,196
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85367

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 415
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $578/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,100

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $242	+0% $201	+5% $160	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $148	+0% $201	+5% $255	+10% $308
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $238	base $201	+0.5pp $164	+1.0pp $125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13292 E 41st St Yuma, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$1,195	$1.71	15d	1	0.10mi
12338 E 34th Pl Yuma, AZ	1.0	1.0	396	$1,500	$3.79	15d	1	1.17mi
11436 S Clara Anita Dr Yuma, AZ	1.0	1.0	407	$975	$2.40	15d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $145,000 Active
19. 2026-02-21
    listed $1,200
20. 2025-02-14
    historical $1,200
21. 2024-12-21
    listed $1,200
22. 2024-04-04
    soldstatus $108,000 Closed 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Great investment property for income. 2 dwellings 1 single-wide and a park model. Singlewide has add on creating a 2nd bedroom and living area. Park model has new HVAC, 20gal hot water heater and a slide out.

23. 2024-04-04
    soldstatus $108,000

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Great investment property for income. 2 dwellings 1 single-wide and a park model. Singlewide has add on creating a 2nd bedroom and living area. Park model has new HVAC, 20gal hot water heater and a slide out.

24. 2024-03-16
    historical Active Under Contract 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Great investment property for income. 2 dwellings 1 single-wide and a park model. Singlewide has add on creating a 2nd bedroom and living area. Park model has new HVAC, 20gal hot water heater and a slide out.

25. 2024-02-23
    listed $119,000 Active 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Great investment property for income. 2 dwellings 1 single-wide and a park model. Singlewide has add on creating a 2nd bedroom and living area. Park model has new HVAC, 20gal hot water heater and a slide out.

26. 2010-06-01
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $578 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $957 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 65.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$578
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $12
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3
• After-tax cash flow: $2,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yuma Union High School District (4507)
• NCES district ID: 0409630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,512
• Composite: 12.86/100
• National rank: #9592
• State rank: #212 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Fortuna Foothills

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #18663

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fortuna Foothills, AZ
• County: Yuma County · 149,809 people
• City population: 21,356
• Metro: Yuma, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,074
• Household income: $58,469
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Yuma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,633 people
• By 2030: 214,114 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 217,856 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 220,276 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 222,359 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 198,880 · -6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuma

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.3% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+6.2 2016: R+5.5 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.81%
• Current HPI: 227.2692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.46%
• Metro: Yuma, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+190.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $145,000 YAR
• 2026-02-21 Listed for Rent $1,200 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-14 Rental Removed $1,200 YAR
• 2024-12-21 Listed for Rent $1,200 YAR
• 2024-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-04 Sold (MLS) $108,000 YAR
• 2024-03-16 Contingent — YAR
• 2024-02-23 Listed $119,000 YAR
• 2010-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $578 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.