4555 S Mission Rd Unit H312 · Tucson, AZ 85746

$39,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 640 sqft · Manufactured · 43 Days on market

Built 1991 Good condition Est $36k · 11% over ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ideal opportunity to own a spotless Park Model in the gated, active adult community of Rincon Valley West! Step into this beautifully furnished 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath home that radiates warmth and charm, with an abundance of natural light flooding through every window. The spacious bonus room features a convenient Murphy Bed, offering flexible use as either a second bedroom or home office--perfect for your unique needs. The home is surrounded by a lovely pavered patio, with two cozy spots to relax and enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the desert evening breeze. Includes a large shed for all your storage needs or hobbies. This extra space offers endless possibilities, whether you're lookin

Key facts

• Gated community
• Heated pools
• Pavered patio

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PAVERED PATIO
• MURPHY BED
• LARGE SHED
• EXERCISE ROOM
• HEATED POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Tucson - MH1; Irregular lot dimensions; Road maintained by city
• HOA & community: Community pool; Community golf; Tennis courts; Pickleball courts; Shuffleboard; Fitness center; Recreation center; Clubhouse; Park; Pool and spa/hot tub; Laundry facilities; Security; Street maintenance; Common area maintenance; Gated community; Annual association fees; Association fees include water, sewer, street maintenance, common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking (1 space); 1 carport space
• Security: Wrought iron security door; Security gate; Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Phone connected
• Home design: Mobile home; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Paver patio; Shed; Workshop; Additional carport; East/West exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Exhaust fan
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath (2 total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Furnished; Bay windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $524 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pueblo High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 1,831 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.23%
• DSCR: 3.50
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $35,840
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4555 S Mission Rd SW Unit J343	0.16mi	1/1.0 (-1)	568 (-11%)	14mo	$32,000	$56	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $23,928
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $52,375
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85746

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,012 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1502 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	713	$844	$1.18	3d	4	0.83mi
1310 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	410	$738	$1.80	2d	5	0.93mi
2040 W Nebraska St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	43d	1	0.95mi
1240 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	530	$850	$1.60	3d	7	0.97mi
5505 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,167	$1.23	1d	29	1.20mi
5600 S Midvale Park Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,012	$1.29	1d	12	1.22mi
851 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	500	$695	$1.39	21d	1	1.29mi
4904 S 13th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	3d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $39,900 Active 1416-char remark
16. 2026-05-02
    historical
17. 2026-01-25
    price $39,900
18. 2025-08-02
    price $49,900
19. 2025-04-16
    historical
20. 2025-04-15
    listed $55,000 Active
21. 2025-03-07
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$971
• − Management: −$971
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $6,004
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,441
• After-tax cash flow: $4,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in Rincon Valley West is move-in ready with good condition and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean windows — Improves natural light and overall appearance
• Resale Replace outdated kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value
• Resale Install new flooring in bathrooms — Enhances the overall aesthetic and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean windows — Improves natural light and overall appearance ↑
• Resale Replace outdated kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Resale Install new flooring in bathrooms — Enhances the overall aesthetic and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,835
• Household income: $68,903
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% White 20% Two or more races 16% Native American 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 46%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.03%
• Current HPI: 312.2096
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-27.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $39,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-02 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $39,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $49,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-16 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-15 Listed $55,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-03-07 Listed $55,000 MLSSAZ