530 Devonshire St W #4 · Hemet, CA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $659 – $1,223
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Unhealthy air days now
- 12 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +8.9/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Rent growth +2.9/5.0
- Livability +2.6/5.0
- Schools +2.5/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$120,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
The Mobile Home is completely Remodeled. New roof, New Paint, New Plumbing, New Title Floor
Key facts
- New plumbing
- New paint
- New title floor
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $617 ($7k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
- Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 4.9% in Hemet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,056 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
- Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 10 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $27k; list at $120k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.39% ✓
- Cap rate
- 12.46%
- Cash-on-cash
- 22.02%
- DSCR
- 1.98
- GRM
- 6.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $41,871
- List price
- $120,000
- Delta
- 186.59%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 16 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 530 W Devonshire Ave #37 | 0.05mi | 2/2.0 | 840 (0%) | 1mo | $55,000 | $65 | 97 |
| 430 N Palm Ave #103 | 0.21mi | 2/1.0 | 832 (-1%) | 2mo | $47,000 | $56 | 83 |
| 675 W Oakland Ave Unit G15 | 0.17mi | 2/2.0 | 960 (+14%) | 0mo | $70,000 | $73 | 68 |
| 332 N Lyon Ave #145 | 0.61mi | 2/2.0 | 880 (+5%) | 6mo | $28,600 | $33 | 58 |
| 332 N Lyon Ave #25 | 0.61mi | 2/1.0 | 800 (-5%) | 8mo | $30,000 | $38 | 52 |
| 530 Devonshire #33 | 0.55mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 800 (-5%) | 11mo | $20,000 | $25 | 52 |
| 332 N Lyon Ave #17 | 0.73mi | 2/1.0 | 800 (-5%) | 8mo | $26,000 | $33 | 47 |
| 601 N Gilbert St | 0.34mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 720 (-14%) | 8mo | $145,000 | $201 | 45 |
| 260 N Lyon Ave #12 | 0.69mi | 2/1.0 | 800 (-5%) | 14mo | $75,000 | $94 | 44 |
| 332 N Lyon Ave #63 | 0.61mi | 2/2.0 | 960 (+14%) | 11mo | $40,000 | $42 | 39 |
| 332 N Lyon Ave #122 | 0.61mi | 2/2.0 | 960 (+14%) | 11mo | $32,500 | $34 | 38 |
| 1445 W Florida Ave #53 | 0.66mi | 2/2.0 | 960 (+14%) | 10mo | $83,000 | $86 | 37 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.76% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 13.4%
- Equity multiple
- 1.53×
- Total profit
- $17,712
- Equity at exit
- $17,892
- IRR
- 21.3%
- Equity multiple
- 2.71×
- Total profit
- $57,534
- Equity at exit
- $10,375
Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State California
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 92543
- Home prices YoY
- -26.7%
- Rents YoY
- 1.8%
- Active inventory
- 264
- Price-to-rent
- 6.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,671 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$629
- Tax from tax record
- −$24 /mo · $292/yr
- Insurance
- −$50
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$351
- Net cashflow
- $617
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $30,000
- Closing costs
- $3,600
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 233 N Alessandro St Hemet, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 690 | $1,400 | $2.03 | 43d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 199 N Inez St Apt D Hemet, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 650 | $1,300 | $2.00 | 7d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 165 N Hamilton Ave Unit 4 Hemet, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 768 | $1,525 | $1.99 | 22d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 165 N Hamilton Ave Unit 3 Hemet, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 768 | $1,450 | $1.89 | 5d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 201 N Valley View Dr Hemet, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 552 | $1,500 | $2.72 | 43d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 1270 Rosalia Ave Unit 1 Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,800 | $2.00 | 43d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 250 N Elk St Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,625 | $1.81 | 14d | 1 | 0.50mi |
| 446 N Elk St Unit D Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 980 | $1,675 | $1.71 | 24d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 426 N Buena Vista St Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 680 | $1,550 | $2.28 | 4d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 426 N Buena Vista St Apt 1 Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 680 | $1,550 | $2.28 | 7d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 560 E Oakland Ave Apt P Hemet, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 550 | $1,325 | $2.41 | 16d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 526 Greystone Ln Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $1,600 | $2.29 | 43d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 526 Greystone Ln Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $1,600 | $2.29 | 18d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 526 Greystone Ln Apt 3 Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $1,650 | $2.36 | 43d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 646 Greystone Ln Apt 2 Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,500 | $2.00 | 44d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 210 N Santa Fe St Hemet, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 600 | $1,300 | $2.17 | 4d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 910 E Campus Way Unit 910 Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 940 | $1,550 | $1.65 | 43d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 811 E Menlo Ave Apt 12 Hemet, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 550 | $1,300 | $2.36 | 24d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 811 E Menlo Ave Unit 02 Hemet, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 550 | $1,300 | $2.36 | 43d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 471 S Simpson Ave Unit D Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 900 | $1,750 | $1.94 | 43d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 930 Calhoun Pl Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 960 | $2,890 | $3.01 | 24d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 1887 Calle Amargosa Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 827 | $1,545 | $1.87 | 24d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 1862 Pueblo Dr Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 977 | $1,900 | $1.94 | 43d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 1862 Pueblo Dr Unit 1862 Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 977 | $1,750 | $1.79 | 24d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 1118 E Campus Way Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 900 | $2,200 | $2.44 | 24d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 627 Solano Dr Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 882 | $1,800 | $2.04 | 18d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 1964 W Oakland Ave Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 977 | $1,695 | $1.73 | 18d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 1931 Nuevo St Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 820 | $1,600 | $1.95 | 43d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 1933 Nuevo St Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 827 | $1,700 | $2.06 | 24d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 2054 Avenida Olivos Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 820 | $1,500 | $1.83 | 43d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 341 Calle Nogales Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 827 | $1,395 | $1.69 | 43d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 2120 San Bernardo Ave Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 827 | $2,100 | $2.54 | 43d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 1461 W Mayberry Ave Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1044 | $1,750 | $1.68 | 43d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 1376 E Date St Unit 5 Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 650 | $1,500 | $2.31 | 16d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 471 Whitney Dr Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1085 | $1,800 | $1.66 | 5d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 1110 Griffith Way Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1008 | $2,300 | $2.28 | 43d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 528 San Marino St Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 827 | $1,900 | $2.30 | 43d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 150 S San Jacinto St Hemet, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 834 | $1,575 | $1.89 | 24d | 2 | 1.12mi |
| 2269 San Bernardo Ave Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 827 | $1,650 | $2.00 | 43d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 682 San Marino St Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 827 | $1,600 | $1.93 | 43d | 1 | 1.13mi |
Listing history 40 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $120,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-03-07$120,000 Active 91-char remark
Show marketing remark (91 chars)
The Mobile Home is completely Remodeled. New roof, New Paint, New Plumbing, New Title Floor
-
2025-11-10historical
-
2025-10-10$120,000 Active
-
2025-03-10soldstatus $27,000 Closed Sale
-
2025-03-05status Pending Sale
-
2025-02-12$35,000 Active
-
2025-02-09historical
-
2025-01-09status Active
-
2024-12-28status Pending Sale
-
2024-12-10price $35,000
-
2024-11-14price $44,900
-
2024-09-20price $54,999
-
2024-08-10$64,999 Active
-
2020-10-23soldstatus $35,000 Closed Sale
-
2020-10-08status Pending Sale
-
2020-08-23$38,500 Active
-
2020-08-19historical
-
2019-12-19$38,500 Active
-
2019-12-15historical
-
2019-07-30$38,500 Active
-
2019-07-30historical
-
2019-05-31price $38,500
-
2019-03-05price $39,995
-
2018-10-22$42,900 Active
-
2016-12-07soldstatus $14,600 Closed Sale
-
2016-11-14status Pending Sale
-
2016-10-31$12,500 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $292 · $24/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $912 · $76/mo
- Expected delta
- +$620/yr (+$52/mo · 212.8%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $20,053
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,722
- − Property taxes
- −$292
- − Insurance
- −$600
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,604
- − Management
- −$1,604
- − Depreciation
- −$3,491
- Taxable income
- $5,740
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,378
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,021/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Hemet Unified
- NCES district ID
- 0616920
- Math proficiency
- 19% ▼ -3.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 41% ▲ 4.00%
- Median HH income
- $39,962
- Composite
- 25.16/100
- National rank
- #7517
- State rank
- #360 of 517 in CA
Livability — Hemet
- Score
- 51/100
- State rank
- #1056
- US rank
- #25208
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Hemet, CA
- County
- Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
- City population
- 137,670
- Metro
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
- Population (ZIP)
- 39,937
- Household income
- $49,396
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 2144.0
Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 2,664,475 people
- By 2030
- 2,802,692 · +5.2%
- By 2040
- 3,050,904 · +14.5%
- By 2050
- 3,256,783 · +22.2%
- By 2075
- 3,655,058 · +37.2%
- By 2100
- 3,766,594 · +41.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 54% White 30% Two or more races 18% Black 10% Native American 2% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 48% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Portuguese 1%
- Foreign-born
- 21% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 59% English-only · Spanish 38% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Riverside
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -147.46%
- Current HPI
- 405.1277
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.76%
- Metro
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.21%
- F500 in state
- 116
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 27 | $1,492B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 3 | $174B |
|
||
| Retail | 3 | $44B |
|
||
| Insurance | 3 | $26B |
|
||
| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $115B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals / Biotech | 2 | $62B |
|
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Price history
+860.0% since first listed27 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-07 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
- 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
- 2025-10-10 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
- 2025-03-10 Sold (MLS) $27,000 CRMLS
- 2025-03-05 Pending — CRMLS
- 2025-02-12 Listed $35,000 CRMLS
- 2025-02-09 Listing Removed — CRMLS
- 2025-01-09 Relisted — CRMLS
- 2024-12-28 Pending — CRMLS
- 2024-12-10 Price Changed $35,000 CRMLS
- 2024-11-14 Price Changed $44,900 CRMLS
- 2024-09-20 Price Changed $54,999 CRMLS
- 2024-08-10 Listed $64,999 CRMLS
- 2020-10-23 Sold (MLS) $35,000 CRMLS
- 2020-10-08 Pending — CRMLS
- 2020-08-23 Listed $38,500 CRMLS
- 2020-08-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
- 2019-12-19 Listed $38,500 CRMLS
- 2019-12-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
- 2019-07-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
- 2019-07-30 Listed $38,500 CRMLS
- 2019-05-31 Price Changed $38,500 CRMLS
- 2019-03-05 Price Changed $39,995 CRMLS
- 2018-10-22 Listed $42,900 CRMLS
- 2016-12-07 Sold (MLS) $14,600 CRMLS
- 2016-11-14 Pending — CRMLS
- 2016-10-31 Listed $12,500 CRMLS
Property tax history
+5.1%/yrLatest (2025): $292 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…