420 49th St E #20 · Memphis, FL 34221

$109,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1969 3,594 sqft lot Est $105k · at est. $229/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming TWO bedroom ONE bath home located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Skyway Village Estates, which is GOLF CART, MOTORCYCLE, and truck friendly. Support/service animals are welcome. FULLY FURNISHED! This well maintain home features numerous recent updates including a NEW FLORIDA ROOM with hurricane impact windows and laminated UV protection, NEW A/C, NEW WATER HEATER, NEWER ROOF, and SOLID FLOORING THROUHGOUT. Enjoy the bright OPEN FLOOR PLAN with a spacious kitchen-living room combo and eat-in kitchen, perfect for casual dining and entertaining. Convenient SHOWER/TUB combo in the bathroom and the TWO bedrooms provide a comfortable living space. Outside you wi

Key facts

• Newer roof
• New florida room
• New water heater

Tags

• GOLF CART FRIENDLY
• NEW FLORIDA ROOM
• HURRICANE IMPACT WINDOWS
• NEW A/C
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEWER ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Total living area reported by owner; Lot roughly 0.08 acre (0 to less than 1/4 acre); Road surfaces: asphalt and concrete
• Financial info: Annual taxes reported; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Located in Skyway Village Estates; Monthly HOA $229 (includes common area taxes, pool, grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water); Association approval required; Clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Senior community; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; breed restrictions); Buyer approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile Home (single wide); One story; Faces north; Homesteaded
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a mobile home (single wide)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (outside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $686 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,730 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.97%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,456
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 49th St E #163	0.13mi	2/1.0	708 (+14%)	12mo	$120,000	$169	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $20,192
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $51,303
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $949/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$229
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 61st St E Unit 1 Palmetto, FL	1.0	1.0	681	$2,050	$3.01	23d	1	0.63mi
219 33rd St W Palmetto, FL	1.0	1.0	440	$1,350	$3.07	23d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $229 · $2,748/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $109,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $949 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $949 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$949
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − HOA: −$2,748
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $7,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,689
• After-tax cash flow: $6,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $949 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.