451 S Valley Vw · Gisela, AZ 85541

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1980 7,840 sqft lot $153/sqft · 27% below area Est $206k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This functional 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a comfortable layout and tons of opportunity to make it your own. Enjoy close access to the Tonto National Forest with miles of trails for ATVs, hiking, and exploring, plus nearby Tonto Creek for fishing or relaxing by the water. Located approximately 15 miles from Payson, you'll appreciate the peaceful setting while still being within easy reach of town amenities.

Key facts

• Nearby tonto creek
• Peaceful setting
• 7,840 sq ft lot

Tags

• MILES OF TRAILS FOR ATVS
• MILES OF TRAILS FOR HIKING
• NEARBY TONTO CREEK
• PEACEFUL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#376 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 706 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $150k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.33%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,000
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -22.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
820 S Tonto Creek Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	896 (-9%)	2mo	$219,000	$244	82
155 E Windy Way	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+10%)	11mo	$234,725	$217	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-12,231
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,084
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 706
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,637 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,398

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $240	+0% $189	+5% $137	+10% $85
Rent	-10% $59	-5% $124	+0% $189	+5% $253	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $227	base $189	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $150,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-02-25
    listed $160,000 Active 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This functional 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a comfortable layout and tons of opportunity to make it your own. Enjoy close access to the Tonto National Forest with miles of trails for ATVs, hiking, and exploring, plus nearby Tonto Creek for fishing or relaxing by the water. Located approximately 15 miles from Payson, you'll appreciate the peaceful setting while still being within easy reach of town amenities.

18. 2024-11-01
    soldstatus $48,500
19. 2006-05-24
    soldstatus $85,000
20. 1997-01-31
    soldstatus $68,000
21. 1995-12-05
    soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone D · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$1,564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,571
• − Management: −$1,571
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$82
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20
• After-tax cash flow: $2,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gisela

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #26651

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gisela, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+229.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $160,000 CAAR
• 2024-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 2006-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1997-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1995-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $266 · -12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.