806 Lariat Ct · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$324,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,370 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1989 1.56 ac lot Est $401k · 19% under $250/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in the sought-after Hemlock Farms community, this spacious contemporary retreat offers the perfect blend of privacy, comfort, and Pocono charm. Set on a DOUBLE LOT with over 1.5 wooded acres, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features over 2,300 square feet of living space with soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and a warm, inviting fireplace at the heart of the home. The open-concept layout is ideal for both everyday living and entertaining, with generous living areas, a flexible loft space, and an attached garage for added convenience. Enjoy peaceful mornings surrounded by nature and cozy evenings by the fire, all within a gated, amenity-filled community

Key facts

• Gated community
• Double lot
• Wooded acres

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• DOUBLE LOT
• WOODED ACRES
• GATED COMMUNITY
• AMENITY-FILLED COMMUNITY
• LAKES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $2,995 (about $249.58/month); Association amenities include beach access, trails, recreation room, indoor and outdoor pools, picnic area, playground, golf course, game room, gated access, and clubhouse; Community features include clubhouse, sidewalks, tennis courts, racquetball, pool, playground, lake, park, golf, fitness center, and fishing

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (garage faces front)
• Security: Gated community access
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; Has a view; Gated community

Interior

• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wood heating
• Interior features: Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $853 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 374 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $324,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.26%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $400,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 Tanager Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5	2,500 (+6%)	5mo	$415,000	$166	72
137 Hillcrest Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,480 (+5%)	2mo	$360,000	$145	72
102 Canterbrook Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	2,296 (-3%)	16mo	$375,000	$163	67
115 Canyon Dr	0.47mi	3/3.0	2,450 (+3%)	2mo	$417,000	$170	67
104 Heron Bay	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,296 (-3%)	5mo	$185,000	$81	66
807 Lariat Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0	2,030 (-14%)	12mo	$355,000	$175	65
104 Summer Hill Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	2,064 (-13%)	1mo	$330,000	$160	64
806 Wren Ct	0.37mi	3/2.5	2,130 (-10%)	4mo	$228,000	$107	61
517 Maple Ridge Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	2,016 (-15%)	8mo	$575,000	$285	56
112 Falling Brook Way	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,400 (+1%)	14mo	$415,000	$173	55
811 Paddock Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5	2,216 (-6%)	4mo	$375,000	$169	49
201 Comstock Dr	0.74mi	3/3.0	2,227 (-6%)	10mo	$445,000	$200	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $231,525
• Equity at exit: $292,696

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.03×
• Total profit: $639,492
• Equity at exit: $631,209

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$408 /mo · $4,891/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$891
• Net cashflow: $853

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,160

Max offer price $324,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,037	-5% $945	+0% $853	+5% $762	+10% $670
Rent	-10% $518	-5% $686	+0% $853	+5% $1,021	+10% $1,188
Rate	-1.0pp $1,017	-0.5pp $936	base $853	+0.5pp $769	+1.0pp $684

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Pommel Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1691	$4,400	$2.60	2d	1	0.36mi
402 Canoe Brook Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2055	$3,500	$1.70	0d	1	0.97mi
142 Eisenhower Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2764	$5,000	$1.81	0d	1	1.28mi
106 Corral Ln Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2150	$4,000	$1.86	5d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $324,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $324,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $324,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $324,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $324,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,891 · $408/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,012 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: +$121/yr (+$10/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$4,891
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,071
• − Management: −$4,071
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable income: $5,581
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,339
• After-tax cash flow: $8,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $324,900 PWMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,891 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.