3127 Franklin St Ext SE · Darien, GA 31305

$199,700

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,970 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Built 1975 Fair condition 1.07 ac lot $101/sqft · 37% below area Est $315k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity! This cozy country home sits on a full acre, offering space, privacy, and room to grow. Stunning natural Live Oaks, No HOA restrictions and a great location- just minutes from Blue and Hall Marina and a short drive to downtown Darien. A little vision will go a long way in making this your ideal country retreat!

Key facts

• Great location
• No hoa restrictions
• Full acre

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• NATURAL LIVE OAKS
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.9% in Darien — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#397 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mcintosh County (town): math 23% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #118 of 174 in GA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in McIntosh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• McIntosh County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,426 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,084
• List price: $199,700
• Delta: -36.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $101,607
• Equity at exit: $179,906

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $304,910
• Equity at exit: $387,973

Cash invested: $55,916 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31305

• Home prices YoY: 20.2%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,604 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,047
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,996/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,747

Max offer price $183,390

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-44	+0% $-113	+5% $-182	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-176	+0% $-113	+5% $-49	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-62	base $-113	+0.5pp $-164	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,925
• Closing costs: $5,991
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $199,700 Pending 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,700 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,700 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,700 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,700 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,700 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,700 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,700 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,700 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,700 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,700 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,700 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,700 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,700 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    listed $199,700 Active 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Great opportunity! This cozy country home sits on a full acre, offering space, privacy, and room to grow. Stunning natural Live Oaks, No HOA restrictions and a great location- just minutes from Blue and Hall Marina and a short drive to downtown Darien. A little vision will go a long way in making this your ideal country retreat!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,186
• − Property taxes: −$2,996
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,540
• − Management: −$1,540
• − Depreciation: −$5,809
• Taxable loss: −$4,819
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,157
• After-tax cash flow: $-196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home on a full acre offers potential for improvement with moderate repairs and maintenance needed. Landscaping and exterior painting would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Some vegetation growth
• Minor Exterior paint — Light yellow siding with some moss

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior updates — Improves living space and rental potential

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Some vegetation growth	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior paint · Light yellow siding with some moss	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior updates — Improves living space and rental potential ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcintosh County
• NCES district ID: 1303600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,742
• Composite: 22.08/100
• National rank: #8188
• State rank: #118 of 174 in GA

Livability — Darien

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #19613

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,119

Population outlook (McIntosh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,922 people
• By 2030: 12,156 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 10,332 · -20.0%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 5,506 · -57.4%
• By 2100: 3,635 · -71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 31% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McIntosh

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.6) · D 35.5% · R 64.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -28.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.6 2020: R+21.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.35%
• Current HPI: 311.3591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $199,700 GIAR