Jagger Plan · Hutto, TX 78634

$386,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,723 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Classic brings new single-family homes to Colton Brook in Hutto, TX. Residents enjoy a variety of onsite amenities, including a pool, pavilion, picnic areas, a playground, walking trails and more. The community offers easy access to major thoroughfares like Highway 79 and 130, with close proximity to amazing local restaurants and shopping in nearby Round Rock and Georgetown. Samsung is expected to build a plant just five minutes away, and the Tesla plant is only 20 minutes from the Colton Brook, providing an array of employment opportunities. An EVO is bringing a mega entertainment center to Hutto, and there are other local entertainment destinations like Old Settlers Park and Dell Diamond.

Key facts

• Pavilion
• Onsite amenities
• Single-family homes

Tags

• SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
• ONSITE AMENITIES
• POOL
• PAVILION
• PICNIC AREAS
• PLAYGROUND

🏗️ New construction. The $386,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $387,156.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $387k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-805 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (30.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (38.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in TX, #2,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ray El (math 32% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 669 students, 47% FRL); Farley Middle (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 975 students, 44% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 1501 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 98d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,717 (38.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.92%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $387,156
• List price: $386,999
• Delta: -0.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Magione St	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,523 (-7%)	7mo	$389,990	$155	58
501 Vantage Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,500 (-8%)	1mo	$338,000	$135	55
403 Vantage Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,500 (-8%)	7mo	$367,990	$147	49
505 Vantage Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,356 (-14%)	4mo	$371,490	$158	46
503 Vantage Dr	0.60mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,939 (+8%)	5mo	$387,490	$132	45
407 Vantage Dr	0.63mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,939 (+8%)	6mo	$384,490	$131	44
110 Donnington Dr	0.71mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,532 (-7%)	5mo	$354,990	$140	44
409 Vantage Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,356 (-14%)	6mo	$377,490	$160	44
401 Vantage Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,356 (-14%)	7mo	$385,990	$164	41
105 Donnington Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,356 (-14%)	8mo	$388,990	$165	39
109 Donnington Dr	0.68mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,939 (+8%)	8mo	$397,990	$135	39
205 Donnington Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,356 (-14%)	9mo	$420,490	$178	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-120,939
• Equity at exit: $57,726

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.83×
• Total profit: $-198,035
• Equity at exit: $33,474

Cash invested: $108,404 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 79 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $385,999 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: 51% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78634

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 1501
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,030
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$484 /mo · $5,807/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-805

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,387

Max offer price $270,601

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-538	-5% $-672	+0% $-805	+5% $-939	+10% $-1,073
Rent	-10% $-992	-5% $-899	+0% $-805	+5% $-712	+10% $-618
Rate	-1.0pp $-611	-0.5pp $-707	base $-805	+0.5pp $-906	+1.0pp $-1,008

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,789
• Closing costs: $11,615
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1007 Wolseley Cv Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2356	$2,295	$0.97	100d	1	0.04mi
118 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1857	$2,000	$1.08	6d	1	0.07mi
1018 Ascari Ct Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2939	$2,795	$0.95	80d	1	0.08mi
136 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1872	$2,050	$1.10	63d	1	0.12mi
216 Arnage Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,100	$1.00	86d	1	0.18mi
211 Coventry Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1919	$2,050	$1.07	113d	1	0.20mi
607 Water Way Ave Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,995	$1.09	93d	1	0.27mi
603 Water Way Ave Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,150	$1.06	23d	1	0.28mi
322 Arnage Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$2,050	$1.05	139d	1	0.29mi
100 Montego St Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,250	$1.11	84d	1	0.31mi
602 Arnage Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	1968	$2,300	$1.17	139d	1	0.34mi
525 Sebring Cir Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,198	$1.13	42d	1	0.34mi
200 Sebring Cir Hutto, TX	5.0	3.0	2352	$2,900	$1.23	113d	1	0.35mi
102 Ostracoda Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	2474	$2,250	$0.91	100d	1	0.35mi
411 Water Way Ave Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2385	$2,450	$1.03	113d	1	0.37mi
104 Bankside Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,250	$1.07	106d	1	0.39mi
100 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	4.0	3.5	2477	$2,350	$0.95	82d	1	0.46mi
100 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	4.0	3.5	2477	$2,350	$0.95	5d	1	0.47mi
110 Grapefruit Rd Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2581	$2,275	$0.88	140d	1	0.50mi
101 Lancia St Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2577	$2,450	$0.95	42d	1	0.55mi
202 Grasslands Trl Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2782	$2,450	$0.88	2d	1	0.56mi
204 Babblebrook Way Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2334	$2,250	$0.96	23d	1	0.56mi
104 Babblebrook Way Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2024	$2,510	$1.24	80d	1	0.57mi
405 Grasslands Trl Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2242	$2,300	$1.03	110d	1	0.57mi
322 Windy Reed Rd Hutto, TX	5.0	3.0	3002	$2,990	$1.00	76d	1	0.57mi
138 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	4.0	3.5	2477	$2,585	$1.04	139d	1	0.58mi
419 Windy Reed Rd Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	2451	$2,300	$0.94	7d	1	0.61mi
230 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1872	$2,100	$1.12	97d	1	0.62mi
434 Windy Reed Rd Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	2451	$2,200	$0.90	139d	1	0.64mi
104 Donnington Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,399	$1.19	113d	1	0.68mi
306 Camargue Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2500	$2,400	$0.96	98d	1	0.69mi
120 Donnington Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,399	$1.19	106d	1	0.71mi
216 Herald Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,395	$1.18	139d	1	0.74mi
109 Imola St Hutto, TX	5.0	2.5	2608	$2,499	$0.96	42d	1	0.79mi
110 Cotton Creek Way Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	1880	$1,975	$1.05	100d	1	0.80mi
315 Waterlily Way Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,000	$0.93	6d	1	0.83mi
106 Camargue Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,349	$1.16	0d	1	0.84mi
106 Camargue Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,350	$1.18	40d	1	0.84mi
106 Brabham Loop Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,595	$1.04	139d	1	0.85mi
108 Brabham Loop Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,195	$1.07	106d	1	0.86mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing price $402,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Located at 1005 Ascari Ct, Hutto TX 78634

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Jagger plan)Living area of 2,723

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $386,999 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $386,999 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $386,999 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $386,999 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $386,999 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $386,999 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $386,999 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $386,999 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $386,999 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $386,999 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    price $386,999 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $383,999 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $383,999 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $383,999 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $383,999 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $383,999 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $383,999 Active 103 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $381,999 Active 100 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $381,999 Active 99 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $381,999 Active 98 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $381,999 Active 97 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $381,999 Active 96 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $381,999 Active 94 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $381,999 Active 93 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $381,999 Active 92 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $381,999 Active 91 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $381,999 Active 90 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $381,999 Active 89 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $381,999 Active 88 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $381,999 Active 87 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $381,999 Active 86 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $381,999 Active 85 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $381,999 Active 84 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $381,999 Active 83 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $381,999 Active 82 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $381,999 Active 80 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $381,999 Active 79 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $381,999 Active 78 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $381,999 Active 77 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $381,999 Active 75 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $381,999 Active 74 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $381,999 Active 73 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $381,999 Active 72 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $381,999 Active 69 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $381,999 Active 67 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $381,999 Active 66 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $381,999 Active 64 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $381,999 Active 62 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $381,999 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $381,999 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,687
• − Property taxes: −$5,807
• − Insurance: −$1,936
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,272
• − Management: −$2,272
• − Depreciation: −$11,263
• Taxable loss: −$16,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,040
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Hutto, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great location with access to amenities and employment opportunities. Updates such as painting, landscaping, new flooring, and kitchen appliances can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both New flooring — Can improve the look and feel of the home ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ray El F TX #1,946/4,322 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 Middle Farley Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Hutto H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Hutto

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2794

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hutto, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 46,413
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,413
• Household income: $114,426
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.56%
• Current HPI: 194.2221
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing price $402,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Located at 1005 Ascari Ct, Hutto TX 78634

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Jagger plan)Living area of 2,723