2510 Oak Trail Trl · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78639

$315,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,285 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 230 Days on market

Built 1978 0.31 ac lot $138/sqft · 57% below area $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this delightful 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home perfectly positioned on a spacious corner lot in Deerhaven. Filled with character and warmth, this property offers comfortable single-level living with an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The bright interior features cozy living spaces, generous bedrooms, and natural light. Outside, enjoy the convenience of a 3-car carport, ideal for vehicles or extra storage. The large corner lot provides added privacy and room to garden or entertain outdoors. With its great location and practical layout, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and functionality.

Key facts

• Entertain outdoors
• Natural light
• Single-level living

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• 3-CAR CARPORT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• ROOM TO GARDEN
• ENTERTAIN OUTDOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 435 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,487/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 202% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,671 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.59%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $725,233
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -56.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 Apache Tears	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,432 (+6%)	1mo	$685,000	$282	67
106 Moonshine	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,242 (-2%)	10mo	$595,000	$265	65
713 Lagoon Loop	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,134 (-7%)	5mo	$424,000	$199	58
310 Apache Tears	0.57mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,330 (+2%)	2mo	$745,000	$320	57
101 Lost Buck	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,234 (-2%)	8mo	$599,000	$268	55
111 Big Sky	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,459 (+8%)	4mo	$975,000	$397	52
318 Apache Tears Rd	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,528 (+11%)	19mo	$749,000	$296	39
907 Mountain Leather	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,505 (+10%)	19mo	$1,047,000	$418	33
901 Mountain Leather	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,573 (+13%)	24mo	$785,000	$305	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-67,781
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-80,382
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78639

• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$416 /mo · $4,995/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,821

Max offer price $268,386

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-175	+0% $-264	+5% $-353	+10% $-442
Rent	-10% $-460	-5% $-362	+0% $-264	+5% $-166	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-105	-0.5pp $-184	base $-264	+0.5pp $-345	+1.0pp $-429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
304 Deer Hollow Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1874	$2,650	$1.41	13d	1	0.07mi
151 Uplift Kingsland, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$2,400	$1.32	13d	1	1.19mi
111 Lachite Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.5	2811	$3,800	$1.35	5d	1	1.36mi
603 Sunray Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,100	$1.29	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 224 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 219 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $315,000 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 215 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 214 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 213 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 212 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 211 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    price $315,000 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Welcome to this delightful 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home perfectly positioned on a spacious corner lot in Deerhaven. Filled with character and warmth, this property offers comfortable single-level living with an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The bright interior features cozy living spaces, generous bedrooms, and natural light. Outside, enjoy the convenience of a 3-car carport, ideal for vehicles or extra storage. The large corner lot provides added privacy and room to garden or entertain outdoors. With its great location and practical layout, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and functionality.

18. 2026-02-10
    price $369,000 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Welcome to this delightful 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home perfectly positioned on a spacious corner lot in Deerhaven. Filled with character and warmth, this property offers comfortable single-level living with an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The bright interior features cozy living spaces, generous bedrooms, and natural light. Outside, enjoy the convenience of a 3-car carport, ideal for vehicles or extra storage. The large corner lot provides added privacy and room to garden or entertain outdoors. With its great location and practical layout, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and functionality.

19. 2025-10-31
    listed $425,000 Active 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Welcome to this delightful 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home perfectly positioned on a spacious corner lot in Deerhaven. Filled with character and warmth, this property offers comfortable single-level living with an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The bright interior features cozy living spaces, generous bedrooms, and natural light. Outside, enjoy the convenience of a 3-car carport, ideal for vehicles or extra storage. The large corner lot provides added privacy and room to garden or entertain outdoors. With its great location and practical layout, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and functionality.

20. 2011-05-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,995 · $416/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,764 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$770/yr (+$64/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,995
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,387
• − Management: −$2,387
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$8,660
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,078
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 8,719
• Household income: $57,742
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 202.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.30%
• Current HPI: 219.8651
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $315,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $369,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-31 Listed $425,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2011-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,995 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.