116 SE Gilliland Rd · Warrington, FL 32507

$199,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1945 10,001 sqft lot Est $235k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fisherman look out!! This home is nestled in Navy Point within minutes of a boat launch which is right down the road. The home has a 3yr old roof, new windows, and a new A/C. The home just needs a little love. This home also has a brand new storage shed and new large detached workshop with power. The home also offers gates from front and back to pull your boat or RV in with ease. This opportunity won't last long!!!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Kayak access points
• Original wood floors

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• SPACIOUS YARD
• WATERFRONT PATHS
• KAYAK ACCESS POINTS
• COASTAL VIEWS
• MINUTES FROM NAS PENSACOLA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County-maintained road access; Homestead status; Green features: insulation, ridge vent; Building area ~936 (unit noted in source); Lot ~0.2296 acres
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Copper wiring
• Home design: Single-story frame home; Resale property; Not attached to other properties; Off-grade foundation; Facing/entry details not specified
• Construction: Frame construction; One level
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Workshop; Central access lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Not updated
• Bedrooms: Three first-floor bedrooms (approx. 11x9, 11x9, 14x9)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace(s); Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Whole house fan
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $200k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,615 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Greve Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,058 (-2%)	8mo	$233,300	$221	82
106 Payne Rd	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,041 (-4%)	3mo	$229,000	$220	81
306 SE Kalash Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,112 (+3%)	5mo	$249,900	$225	78
316 W Sunset Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+11%)	3mo	$100,000	$83	67
112 Cousineau Rd	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,030 (-5%)	2mo	$270,000	$262	67
213 Bryant Rd	0.25mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,187 (+10%)	4mo	$165,000	$139	63
413 S 2nd St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,124 (+4%)	2mo	$220,000	$196	57
208 NW Gilliland Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+8%)	9mo	$329,000	$281	56
553 S 1st St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (-2%)	7mo	$200,000	$189	53
118 Baynes Ave	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (-3%)	7mo	$149,999	$143	50
607 S Navy Blvd	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-7%)	9mo	$220,000	$218	49
714 Wingate St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (-5%)	9mo	$120,000	$117	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-29,023
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-29,395
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,206/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,666

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $160	+0% $103	+5% $46	+10% $-10
Rent	-10% $-39	-5% $32	+0% $103	+5% $174	+10% $245
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $154	base $103	+0.5pp $51	+1.0pp $-2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 SE Kalash Rd Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1029	$1,800	$1.75	24d	1	0.10mi
103 NW Kalash Rd Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,400	$1.12	24d	1	0.25mi
206 Berry Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,000	$1.34	24d	1	0.27mi
300 Gibbs Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1377	$1,999	$1.45	24d	1	0.27mi
315 Flannan Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	836	$1,745	$2.09	14d	1	0.35mi
718 Mills Ave Unit A Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	728	$1,200	$1.65	24d	1	0.51mi
2 E Sunset Ave Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	806	$1,350	$1.67	24d	1	0.60mi
210 S 2nd St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,900	$1.54	24d	1	0.75mi
99 S 3rd St Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,259	$1.40	24d	1	0.87mi
405 E Palmetto Ave Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	24d	1	0.91mi
7 Mindoro Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	924	$1,395	$1.51	24d	1	1.02mi
26 N Lincoln Rd Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	759	$1,050	$1.38	14d	1	1.02mi
45 W Carver Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	940	$1,325	$1.41	24d	1	1.03mi
1120 S Old Corry Field Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	24d	1	1.21mi
1007 Winton Ave Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,295	$1.60	24d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,999 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    listed $199,999 Active
16. 2020-10-13
    soldstatus $110,000 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Fisherman look out!! This home is nestled in Navy Point within minutes of a boat launch which is right down the road. The home has a 3yr old roof, new windows, and a new A/C. The home just needs a little love. This home also has a brand new storage shed and new large detached workshop with power. The home also offers gates from front and back to pull your boat or RV in with ease. This opportunity won't last long!!!

17. 2020-10-13
    soldstatus $110,000

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Fisherman look out!! This home is nestled in Navy Point within minutes of a boat launch which is right down the road. The home has a 3yr old roof, new windows, and a new A/C. The home just needs a little love. This home also has a brand new storage shed and new large detached workshop with power. The home also offers gates from front and back to pull your boat or RV in with ease. This opportunity won't last long!!!

18. 2020-07-16
    listed $135,000 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Fisherman look out!! This home is nestled in Navy Point within minutes of a boat launch which is right down the road. The home has a 3yr old roof, new windows, and a new A/C. The home just needs a little love. This home also has a brand new storage shed and new large detached workshop with power. The home also offers gates from front and back to pull your boat or RV in with ease. This opportunity won't last long!!!

19. 1991-10-01
    soldstatus $41,500
20. 1986-10-01
    soldstatus $38,000
21. 1976-01-01
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,206 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,206 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,206
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$509
• After-tax cash flow: $1,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1011.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $199,999 PARMLS
• 2020-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-13 Sold (MLS) $110,000 PARMLS
• 2020-07-16 Listed $135,000 PARMLS
• 1991-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1976-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,206 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.