None · Avra Valley, AZ 85653

$299,900

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1978 1.18 ac lot $208/sqft · 97% above area Est $248k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a 1977 Affixed Double wide mobile home - approx 1700 sq ft on 1.18 acre lot in Marana. Priced for quick sale.

Key facts

• Paved road
• Extended guest space
• Rental income

Tags

• MULTI-GENERATIONAL LIVING
• RENTAL INCOME
• EXTENDED GUEST SPACE
• PAVED ROAD
• PEACEFUL RURAL SETTING
• MULTIPLE LIVING SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on a 51,226 sq. ft. lot; Zoned Pima County - SH; County-maintained road responsibility
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Community allows horses

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered/carport space; Circular driveway; RV access/parking; Oversized parking
• Security: Security features not provided
• Utilities: Water from water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Fixer condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle and metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Chain link fencing; Paved road access; East/West exposure; Horses allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Exhaust fan; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Lazy Susan; Prep sink; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Wet bar; Walk-in closets; Low-emissivity, ENERGY STAR-qualified, double pane insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.9% in Avra Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#275 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 412 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $300k implies a 1566% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,548 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.30%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,036
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: 29.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16741 W Whitewing Way	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (+13%)	2mo	$123,000	$76	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-32,973
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-5,910
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $708/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,224

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-13
   historical
2. 2026-03-29
   price $320,000
3. 2026-03-29
   listed $299,900 Active
4. 2018-05-04
   soldstatus $18,000 Closed 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   This is a 1977 Affixed Double wide mobile home - approx 1700 sq ft on 1.18 acre lot in Marana. Priced for quick sale.

5. 2018-04-24
   status Pending 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   This is a 1977 Affixed Double wide mobile home - approx 1700 sq ft on 1.18 acre lot in Marana. Priced for quick sale.

6. 2018-04-03
   listed $18,000 Active 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   This is a 1977 Affixed Double wide mobile home - approx 1700 sq ft on 1.18 acre lot in Marana. Priced for quick sale.

7. 2002-08-15
   soldstatus $62,500
8. 1989-12-01
   soldstatus $30,000
9. 1985-03-01
   soldstatus $39,000
10. 1979-06-01
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,979 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,272/yr (+$106/mo · 179.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$708
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,415
• − Management: −$2,415
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$2,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$570
• After-tax cash flow: $3,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Avra Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #23869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avra Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+5898.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-24 Listed $299,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $320,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-29 Listed $299,900 MLSSAZ
• 2018-05-04 Sold (MLS) $18,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-04-24 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2018-04-03 Listed $18,000 MLSSAZ
• 2002-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1985-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1979-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $708 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.