539 Poinsettia Ln #152 · Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$74,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 972 sqft · Manufactured · 166 Days on market

Built 1969 Fair condition $170/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

This 2 bed/2 bath home is waiting for your touches. That's right it's a fixer with a lot of potential OR, you might consider replacing it with a mobile home permitted tiny home. This home is located in close proximity to the Holiday Manor Clubhouse, beautiful gulf beaches of Marco Island and Naples, Downtown 5th Ave with plenty of shopping and restaurants, and also provides a boat ramp with GULF ACCESS. Holiday Manor is a warm and friendly 55+ community with amenities that include a clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard and LOW HOA fees. Community is suitable for year round or winter getaway but does not allow pets. Buyers must have a 700+ credit score. Set up your showing today!

Key facts

• Low hoa fees
• Clubhouse
• Gulf access

Tags

• GULF ACCESS
• BOAT RAMP
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• LOW HOA FEES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Taxes listed (see records) for tax year 2024
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with monthly fee ($170); On-site management; Community amenities include: clubhouse, community pool and spa/hot tub, exercise room, billiards, library, community room, shuffleboard, bocce court, BBQ/picnic area, boat storage, community boat ramp, community gulf boat access, fish cleaning station, common laundry, internet access (see remarks for full details); Maintenance included: irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, exterior pest control, sewer, street maintenance, trash removal; Non-gated mobile/manufactured community; Total annual recurring fees approximately $2,227; one-time fees approximately $100

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured residential home; Single-story; Located in the Holiday Manor community
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Built in 1969; Building description — see remarks
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Jalousie and single-hung windows; Aluminum siding; Boat slip access; Regular lot; rear exposure faces north; Lot unit 152

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath details — see remarks
• Heating & cooling: Wall unit heat (see remarks); Ceiling fans; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Turnkey unit; Dining area located in the living room; See remarks for additional interior details
• Laundry & utility: Common laundry (community)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $693 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.06%
• DSCR: 3.85
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $37,772
• Equity at exit: $16,367

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $97,827
• Equity at exit: $15,766

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 905
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,288 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$170
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $693

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,410

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $745	-5% $719	+0% $693	+5% $667	+10% $641
Rent	-10% $512	-5% $603	+0% $693	+5% $783	+10% $874
Rate	-1.0pp $731	-0.5pp $712	base $693	+0.5pp $674	+1.0pp $654

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1252 Henderson Creek Dr Naples, FL	2.0	1.5	820	$1,895	$2.31	24d	1	0.12mi
1747 Beverly Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,300	$2.13	24d	1	0.36mi
1010 Manatee Rd Unit B304 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	24d	1	0.57mi
1022 Manatee Rd Unit D107 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	24d	1	0.58mi
1000 Manatee Rd Unit A201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	24d	1	0.60mi
1014 Manatee Rd Unit F307 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	24d	1	0.64mi
2000 Rookery Bay Dr Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,772	$1.91	24d	9	0.71mi
9175 Celeste Dr Unit 105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	24d	1	1.00mi
9165 Celeste Dr Unit 3-303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$6,500	$6.50	24d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $170 · $2,040/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $74,900 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 680-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $74,900 Active 147 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$5,493
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,196
• − Management: −$2,196
• − HOA: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $8,027
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,927
• After-tax cash flow: $6,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the awning, siding, and kitchen cabinets.

Repairs flagged

• Major Awning — Damaged and in poor condition.
• Moderate Siding — Weathered and needs repainting or replacement.
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint or refinishing.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace awning and siding — These repairs improve the home's appearance and increase its marketability.
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets can significantly boost the home's resale and rental value by modernizing the kitchen space.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Awning · Damaged and in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Siding · Weathered and needs repainting or replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen cabinets · Worn and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint or refinishing.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$18,500–68,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace awning and siding — These repairs improve the home's appearance and increase its marketability. ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets can significantly boost the home's resale and rental value by modernizing the kitchen space. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winding Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $74,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $79,900 NAPLESMLS