1130 Forest Rd · Schenectady, NY 12303

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,719 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1924 4,356 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property has been placed in an upcoming event. All bids should be submitted at Xome.com void where prohibited. Please submit any pre-auction offer received through the property details page on Xome.com. Any post-auction offers will need to be submitted directly to the listing agent. Response within 3 business days. All properties are subject to a 5% buyer s premium pursuant to the Auction Participation Agreement and Terms & Conditions minimums will apply. Please contact listing agent for details and commission paid on this property.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1924

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 6.3% in Schenectady — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in NY, #2,597 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Schenectady City School District (urban): math 38% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #556 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Schenectady High School (math 75% / reading 90%, grade A, #446 of 1,100 statewide, top 41%, 2,743 students, 71% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 82% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+46 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Schenectady City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 154 units permitted in Schenectady County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Schenectady County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.04%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,817
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
806 Strong St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-7%)	1mo	$250,000	$156	60
1002 Strong St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,530 (-11%)	6mo	$186,000	$122	50
1356 Wing Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (-15%)	1mo	$287,375	$196	50
519 Paige St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-2%)	15mo	$130,000	$77	49
1522 Hawthorne St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,469 (-14%)	12mo	$248,000	$169	39
1422 Hawthorne St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,487 (-14%)	21mo	$250,000	$168	38
1009 Davis Ter	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-2%)	19mo	$260,000	$155	38
1551 California Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,485 (-14%)	16mo	$210,000	$141	35
821 Congress St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-13%)	6mo	$215,000	$143	35
1033 Cutler St	0.63mi	3/— (+1)	1,904 (+11%)	16mo	$80,000	$42	34
1125 Webster St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,481 (-14%)	21mo	$154,000	$104	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $21,363
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $64,743
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12303

• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $623	-5% $592	+0% $561	+5% $531	+10% $500
Rent	-10% $444	-5% $503	+0% $561	+5% $620	+10% $679
Rate	-1.0pp $606	-0.5pp $584	base $561	+0.5pp $538	+1.0pp $515

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1130 Pleasant St Schenectady, NY	2.0	1.0	1069	$1,300	$1.22	44d	1	0.37mi
918 Delamont Ave Schenectady, NY	3.0	1.0	1192	$1,600	$1.34	24d	1	0.52mi
2030 Euclid Ave Schenectady, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	19d	1	1.20mi
762 Eastern Ave Schenectady, NY	2.0	1.0	1119	$1,400	$1.25	24d	1	1.23mi
117 Washington Ave Schenectady, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$867	$0.84	14d	9	1.24mi
2007 Campbell Ave Schenectady, NY	3.0	1.0	1272	$1,600	$1.26	14d	1	1.27mi
13 State St Schenectady, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	923	$1,768	$1.92	14d	1	1.34mi
1037 University Pl Unit 2 Schenectady, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	1.39mi
830 Plymouth Ave Schenectady, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	19d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2023-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2022-11-09
   status Pending
3. 2022-10-19
   listed $89,000 Active
4. 2005-06-20
   soldstatus $120,000
5. 1999-06-07
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $5,658
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,358
• After-tax cash flow: $5,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schenectady City School District
• NCES district ID: 3626010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,453
• Composite: 30.2/100
• National rank: #6309
• State rank: #556 of 590 in NY

Livability — Schenectady

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2597

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Schenectady, NY
• County: Schenectady County · 141,369 people
• City population: 141,369
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,360
• Household income: $84,375
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1318.0

Population outlook (Schenectady County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 155,046 people
• By 2030: 154,322 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 151,796 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 148,621 · -4.1%
• By 2075: 141,229 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 126,014 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schenectady

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 55.4% · R 44.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.7pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+15.7 2016: D+5.8 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.01%
• Current HPI: 280.3886
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+61.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2023-03-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2022-11-09 Pending — Global MLS
• 2022-10-19 Listed $89,000 Global MLS
• 2005-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,497 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.