716-425 Hwy 395 E · Janesville, CA 96130

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 171 Days on market

Built 1978 2.40 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Handyman’s Special with Tons of Potential! Fully fenced and ready for animals, this property offers a small barn and a fenced dog run/play area for kids or pets. The home itself needs work—including a roof replacement—and is ideal for someone with vision and renovation skills If you're looking for a project with great potential, this is the one!

Key facts

• Play area
• Fully fenced
• Small barn

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• SMALL BARN
• FENCED DOG RUN
• PLAY AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No formal parking (unpaved)
• Utilities: Private well water; Electricity available; Propane available; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; 56-foot mobile length; Foundation: see remarks; 1440 total area
• Exterior features: Outbuilding; Dirt road access; Unimproved road frontage; Zoned r-1a2

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wood heating
• Interior features: Has heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 2.7% in Janesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#686 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B; Watch: schools D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Shaffer Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #925 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.99%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $29,795
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $84,206
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96130

• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $709

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $775	-5% $742	+0% $709	+5% $676	+10% $643
Rent	-10% $573	-5% $641	+0% $709	+5% $777	+10% $846
Rate	-1.0pp $757	-0.5pp $733	base $709	+0.5pp $684	+1.0pp $659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 153 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 152 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 151 DOM
18. 2025-12-01
    listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $7,440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,785
• After-tax cash flow: $6,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shaffer Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0636420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,545
• Composite: 31.53/100
• National rank: #11160
• State rank: #925 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Janesville

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #686
• US rank: #20909

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,797
• Population (ZIP): 20,892

Population outlook (Lassen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,112 people
• By 2030: 26,732 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 25,536 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,262 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 18,620 · -31.3%
• By 2100: 14,679 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Black 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lassen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.0) · D 21.8% · R 75.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.2pp · 2024: -54.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.0 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+39.8 2008: R+34.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.12%
• Current HPI: 136.1585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Listed $95,000 TCAOR