1306 Lake St · Lake Providence, LA 71254

$75,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1967 0.35 ac lot $34/sqft · 48% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell and full of potential, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home features a beautiful view of Lake Providence. Hardwood floors span most of the home, with linoleum in the kitchen. High ceilings and multiple built-in shelves add character and functionality. An excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value to a lake-view property.

Key facts

• Built-in shelves
• Hardwood floors
• 0.35 acre lot

Tags

• VIEW OF LAKE PROVIDENCE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BUILT-IN SHELVES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $520 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#246 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• East Carroll Parish (town): math 4% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #97 of 98 in LA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Carroll County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $75k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.70%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,061
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -53.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $21,342
• Equity at exit: $11,607

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $61,521
• Equity at exit: $7,216

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71254

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $609/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $520

Break-even live

Break-even rent $602

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $562	-5% $541	+0% $520	+5% $499	+10% $477
Rent	-10% $420	-5% $470	+0% $520	+5% $570	+10% $619
Rate	-1.0pp $558	-0.5pp $539	base $520	+0.5pp $500	+1.0pp $481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 354-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   status $75,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    status $75,000 Pending 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-02-03
    listed $75,000 Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Priced to sell and full of potential, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home features a beautiful view of Lake Providence. Hardwood floors span most of the home, with linoleum in the kitchen. High ceilings and multiple built-in shelves add character and functionality. An excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value to a lake-view property.

16. 2025-09-30
    listed $120,000 Active
17. 2019-10-25
    soldstatus $50,000
18. 2018-01-24
    listed $85,000
19. 2016-08-30
    listed $149,500
20. 2003-06-06
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $609 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $609 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$609
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,209
• − Management: −$1,209
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,330
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,279
• After-tax cash flow: $4,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Carroll Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200570
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -34.00%
• Median HH income: $24,119
• Composite: 4.64/100
• National rank: #10048
• State rank: #97 of 98 in LA

Livability — Lake Providence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #18643

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Providence, LA
• Population (ZIP): 6,500

Population outlook (East Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,419 people
• By 2030: 5,998 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 5,250 · -18.2%
• By 2050: 4,645 · -27.6%
• By 2075: 3,855 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 3,613 · -43.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 24% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · East Carroll

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 58.0% · R 40.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 28.5pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+26.5 2012: D+33.1 2008: D+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.87%
• Current HPI: 70.0789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $75,000 NELABOR
• 2025-09-30 Listed $120,000 NELABOR
• 2019-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-24 Listed $85,000 NELABOR
• 2016-08-30 Listed $149,500 NELABOR
• 2003-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $609 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.