2607 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE · Washington, DC 20020

$349,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 235 Days on market

Built 1905 8,832 sqft lot Est $541k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 8,832 sq ft lot
• Built 1905
• Listed 234 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership: Fee simple

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached structure; Finished above grade living area reported by assessor; Finished and unfinished below grade areas
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab and permanent foundation
• Exterior features: Not tidal waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Basement with poured concrete; Multiple access exits (2+)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $786 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
• Recommended offer: $307k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Savoy Es (238 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 296 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,943/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 5148% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $349k implies a 336% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.65%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $541,476
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2316 Chester St SE	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,428 (+5%)	8mo	$480,000	$198	57
1337 Maple View Pl SE	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,112 (-9%)	4mo	$565,000	$268	52
1501 Erie St SE	0.59mi	4/4.5	2,493 (+8%)	9mo	$582,700	$234	38
3026 Stanton Rd SE	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,031 (-12%)	9mo	$353,000	$174	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-3,055
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $76,187
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State District of Columbia: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Washington: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43

Rent Stabilization Program; TOPA gives tenants right of first refusal.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20020

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,239/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$828
• Net cashflow: $786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,948

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $983	-5% $885	+0% $786	+5% $687	+10% $588
Rent	-10% $474	-5% $630	+0% $786	+5% $942	+10% $1,097
Rate	-1.0pp $962	-0.5pp $875	base $786	+0.5pp $695	+1.0pp $603

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2322 Shannon Pl SE Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1800	$2,800	$1.56	25d	1	0.36mi
1433 Howard Rd SE Washington, DC	5.0	3.5	2000	$7,500	$3.75	19d	1	0.41mi
2530 Elvans Rd SE Unit B Washington, DC	5.0	3.5	2760	$7,500	$2.72	8d	1	0.44mi
2520 Elvans Rd SE Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	2760	$3,800	$1.38	25d	1	0.47mi
1325 Valley Pl SE Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	2138	$6,500	$3.04	25d	1	0.51mi
2460 James Bank Rd SE Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1687	$3,190	$1.89	15d	1	0.61mi
2390 Elvans Rd SE Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	2176	$3,190	$1.47	8d	1	0.67mi
1505 West St SE Unit 1 Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	2100	$3,300	$1.57	2d	1	0.74mi
1430 V St SE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1680	$3,100	$1.85	25d	1	0.75mi
1802 14th St SE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,800	$1.56	25d	1	0.86mi
1919 16th St SE Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	1920	$2,100	$1.09	25d	1	0.90mi
1722 Gainesville St SE Washington, DC	4.0	2.5	2000	$3,490	$1.75	25d	1	0.91mi
2412 18th St SE Washington, DC	5.0	2.0	1584	$3,500	$2.21	25d	1	0.94mi
2412 18th St SE Washington, DC	5.0	2.0	1584	$3,300	$2.08	24d	1	0.94mi
224 Malcolm X Ave SE Washington, DC	4.0	3.5	2052	$3,500	$1.71	25d	1	1.00mi
357 Parkland Pl SE Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	2400	$2,300	$0.96	25d	1	1.01mi
357 Parkland Pl SE Unit 1 Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	2400	$2,200	$0.92	25d	1	1.01mi
1851 Tubman Rd SE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1689	$3,200	$1.89	25d	1	1.16mi
1516 18th St SE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1941	$3,200	$1.65	25d	1	1.27mi
1205 Half St SE Washington, DC	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1058	$5,922	$5.59	2d	31	1.29mi
742 Congress St SE Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1744	$3,000	$1.72	17d	1	1.30mi
1211 Van St SE Washington, DC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1087	$7,950	$7.31	12d	5	1.34mi
1240 Half St SW Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	2000	$4,650	$2.33	19d	1	1.36mi
1210 Half St SW Washington, DC	4.0	2.5	1600	$4,950	$3.09	25d	1	1.41mi
1201 Half St SW Ph 1201 Washington, DC	3.0	3.0	1757	$7,195	$4.10	25d	1	1.44mi
742 7th St SE Unit B Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	1727	$3,258	$1.89	25d	1	1.45mi
1000 S Capitol St SE Washington, DC	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1294	$9,905	$7.65	2d	16	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Active 226 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,000 Active 225 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,000 Active 224 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $349,000 Active 221 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,000 Active 220 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,000 Active 219 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,000 Active 218 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Active 217 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    price $349,000
15. 2026-04-09
    price $379,000
16. 2026-02-16
    price $399,000
17. 2025-10-27
    listed $450,000 Active
18. 2025-10-23
    historical $450,000
19. 1995-09-13
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DC · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,239 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,239 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$4,239
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,785
• − Management: −$3,785
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable income: $4,055
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$973
• After-tax cash flow: $8,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: District Of Columbia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1100030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,671
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9606
• State rank: #8 of 32 in DC

Livability — Washington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #5327

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, DC
• County: District of Columbia · 671,873 people
• City population: 671,873
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 53,005
• Household income: $54,032
• Rent vs Own: 69.8% rent · 30.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5148.0

Population outlook (District of Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 821,926 people
• By 2030: 899,517 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 1,061,162 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 1,231,493 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 1,603,312 · +95.1%
• By 2100: 1,847,141 · +124.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% White 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · District of Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+86.1) · D 91.2% · R 5.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 85.9pp · 2024: 86.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+86.1 2020: D+86.8 2016: D+88.7 2012: D+84.2 2008: D+85.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -415.44%
• Current HPI: 306.5068
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.86%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in DC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$153B
▸Life Sciences / Industrials	1	$25B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$8B

Price history

+336.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $349,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $379,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $399,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $450,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-23 Coming Soon $450,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,239 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.