126 Bluebill N · Baytown, TX 77523

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 401 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1978 Good condition 4,168 sqft lot $71/sqft · 46% below area Est $149k · 46% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.6

Listing remarks MLS

**GREAT NEW PRICE** - Charming property for sale along the serene shoreline offers an idyllic retreat with beautiful views of the water! Peaceful waterside living with this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home nestled near the shores of Trinity Bay. This home offers the ideal balance of comfort and natural beauty. The property also offers easy access to the fishing pier, neighborhood pool, and playground area. Making this a great choice for those who love the outdoors. Located in a quiet community, this home offers both privacy and convenience. Whether you're looking for a seasonal escape or a full-time residence, this home is a rare find for anyone seeking affordable living near the bay! Some TLC needed. Price accordingly.

Key facts

• Neighborhood pool
• Playground area
• Quiet community

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO FISHING PIER
• NEIGHBORHOOD POOL
• PLAYGROUND AREA
• QUIET COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: De Zavala El (math 40% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 594 students, 89% FRL); Horace Mann J H (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 811 students, 87% FRL); Lee H S (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,845 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 61% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 921 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 401 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 401 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.62%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,000
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -46.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3110 Bay Oaks Harbor Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	2mo	$169,000	$139	79
122 Egret Canal S	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-6%)	4mo	$149,000	$141	72
130 Bluebill Bay S	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-5%)	24mo	$57,000	$54	70
3222 Anglefish Cv	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,166 (+4%)	22mo	$185,000	$159	68
2815 Bay Oaks Harbor Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	32mo	$159,900	$131	58
132 Egret Canal S	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-11%)	12mo	$146,000	$146	56
2418 Bay Oaks Harbor Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-3%)	28mo	$175,000	$161	47
2742 Bay Oaks Harbor Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	924 (-18%)	31mo	$160,000	$173	45
130 Gulls Cut S	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+16%)	21mo	$189,000	$145	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $31,891
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $87,777
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $97,000 ($89/sqft)
• Median days on market: 106 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +49.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 921
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,056/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$30
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $807

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $737	-5% $714	+0% $692	+5% $669	+10% $647
Rent	-10% $559	-5% $625	+0% $692	+5% $758	+10% $825
Rate	-1.0pp $732	-0.5pp $712	base $692	+0.5pp $671	+1.0pp $650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail $30/mo · $360/yr

• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $80,000 Active 401 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $80,000 Active 399 DOM
3. 2026-07-28
   days on market $80,000 Active 398 DOM
4. 2026-07-26
   days on market $80,000 Active 396 DOM
5. 2026-07-24
   days on market $80,000 Active 394 DOM
6. 2026-07-23
   days on market $80,000 Active 393 DOM
7. 2026-07-22
   days on market $80,000 Active 392 DOM
8. 2026-07-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 391 DOM
9. 2026-07-20
   days on market $80,000 Active 390 DOM
10. 2026-07-18
    days on market $80,000 Active 388 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $80,000 Active 387 DOM
12. 2026-07-16
    days on market $80,000 Active 386 DOM
13. 2026-07-15
    days on market $80,000 Active 385 DOM
14. 2026-07-14
    days on market $80,000 Active 384 DOM
15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $80,000 Active 383 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $80,000 Active 382 DOM
17. 2026-07-11
    days on market $80,000 Active 381 DOM
18. 2026-07-10
    days on market $80,000 Active 380 DOM
19. 2026-07-09
    days on market $80,000 Active 379 DOM
20. 2026-07-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 377 DOM
21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $80,000 Active 376 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $80,000 Active 375 DOM
23. 2026-07-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 374 DOM
24. 2026-07-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 373 DOM
25. 2026-07-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 372 DOM
26. 2026-07-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 371 DOM
27. 2026-06-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 370 DOM
28. 2026-06-29
    days on market $80,000 Active 369 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $80,000 Active 368 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $80,000 Active 367 DOM
31. 2026-06-26
    days on market $80,000 Active 366 DOM
32. 2026-06-24
    days on market $80,000 Active 364 DOM
33. 2026-06-22
    days on market $80,000 Active 362 DOM
34. 2026-06-21
    days on market $80,000 Active 361 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $80,000 Active 358 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $80,000 Active 357 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $80,000 Active 356 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $80,000 Active 355 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $80,000 Active 353 DOM
40. 2026-06-09
    days on market $80,000 Active 349 DOM
41. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 347 DOM
42. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 344 DOM
43. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 343 DOM
44. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 342 DOM
45. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 341 DOM
46. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 340 DOM
47. 2025-06-25
    listed $80,000 Active 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    **GREAT NEW PRICE** - Charming property for sale along the serene shoreline offers an idyllic retreat with beautiful views of the water! Peaceful waterside living with this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home nestled near the shores of Trinity Bay. This home offers the ideal balance of comfort and natural beauty. The property also offers easy access to the fishing pier, neighborhood pool, and playground area. Making this a great choice for those who love the outdoors. Located in a quiet community, this home offers both privacy and convenience. Whether you're looking for a seasonal escape or a full-time residence, this home is a rare find for anyone seeking affordable living near the bay! Some TLC needed. Price accordingly.

48. 2025-06-25
    historical

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    **GREAT NEW PRICE** - Charming property for sale along the serene shoreline offers an idyllic retreat with beautiful views of the water! Peaceful waterside living with this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home nestled near the shores of Trinity Bay. This home offers the ideal balance of comfort and natural beauty. The property also offers easy access to the fishing pier, neighborhood pool, and playground area. Making this a great choice for those who love the outdoors. Located in a quiet community, this home offers both privacy and convenience. Whether you're looking for a seasonal escape or a full-time residence, this home is a rare find for anyone seeking affordable living near the bay! Some TLC needed. Price accordingly.

49. 2025-05-21
    price $99,000
50. 2025-04-25
    listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,056 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,464 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 38.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,056
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $7,537
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,809
• After-tax cash flow: $6,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,600–$16,800 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good roof, exterior, and interior condition. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value. Consider painting the exterior and interior walls and improving the landscaping to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary De Zavala El F TX #1,680/4,322 Nat'l #20,973/41,679 Middle Horace Mann J H F TX #1,015/1,662 Nat'l #8,646/14,009 High Impact Early College H S C TX #333/1,632 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Chambers County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.7% since first listed

48 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-21 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed $129,999 HARMLS
• 2024-08-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Rental Removed $1,300 HARMLS
• 2024-03-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-05 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-06 Rental Removed $1,300 HARMLS
• 2024-02-06 Listed for Rent $1,300 HARMLS
• 2023-12-10 Listed for Rent $1,300 HARMLS
• 2023-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-12-10 Listed $129,999 HARMLS
• 2023-01-11 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-11-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-14 Listed $74,900 HARMLS
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-08-18 Price Changed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2021-08-16 Price Changed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2021-08-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-08-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-07-26 Price Changed $84,900 HARMLS
• 2021-07-14 Price Changed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2021-07-05 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2020-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-11-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-05 Listed $49,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-03-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-02-17 Listed $28,500 HARMLS
• 2015-10-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-07-03 Listed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2009-06-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-12-17 Listed $59,850 HARMLS
• 1996-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,056 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.