405 Citrus Cir · San Juan, TX 78589

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1997 0.27 ac lot $63/sqft · 43% below area Est $238k · 43% under $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a spacious and well-maintained double-wide manufactured home located in a 55+ community. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers a comfortable, open and functional layout. The property is being sold fully furnished, providing a convenient move-in ready opportunity. The Home sits on two lots, offering additional outdoor space, it includes a large storage shed ideal for tools, hobbies, or extra storage and a sprinkler system for your convinced. Residents enjoy access to community amenities and a peaceful environment. Buyer to verify all information, including room dimensions, lot size, and community requirements. Schedule your showing because this one wont last long.

Key facts

• Two lots
• Community amenities
• Peaceful environment

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• FULLY FURNISHED
• TWO LOTS
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• PEACEFUL ENVIRONMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.27 acre (11,879 sq ft)
• HOA & community: Orangewood Estates association; Annual association fee of $137; Mandatory POA; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered parking spaces; 3-space carport; Garage faces front
• Utilities: City sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-family property; Metal roof; Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Building area approx. 2,128
• Exterior features: Mature trees; Curb and gutters; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Thermostat
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; Ceiling fans; Mini blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area with washer/dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Austin Middle (math 14% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 951 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.26%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,230
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -43.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,210
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $21,470
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,012/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $368	-5% $330	+0% $292	+5% $254	+10% $215
Rent	-10% $160	-5% $226	+0% $292	+5% $358	+10% $424
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $326	base $292	+0.5pp $257	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1400 State Ave San Juan, TX	4.0	3.5	1750	$1,950	$1.11	20d	1	0.37mi
311 W 8th St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$1,390	$0.76	45d	1	0.95mi
1606 Kumquat Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,398	$0.95	45d	1	1.30mi
1606 S Kumquat St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,350	$0.91	24d	1	1.35mi
1305 James Cir Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,550	$1.02	24d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $135,000 Active 681-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,012 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,012 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$3,012
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$362
• After-tax cash flow: $3,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $135,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,012 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.