14285 17th Ct E · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$485,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,395 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2023 7,349 sqft lot Est $635k · 24% under $164/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. The collection’s only two-story plan centers on convenience. On the first floor, a flex room offers a place to explore hobbies, while the open design of the living room and nook provide a contemporary style that leads to an extensive lanai. The nearby owner’s suite is a tranquil escape, and upstairs, an additional bedroom and loft are perfect for guests. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Stone tile feature
• Tile and metal roof

Tags

• TILE AND METAL ROOF
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• STONE TILE FEATURE
• HEATED SALT WATER POOL
• DEEP PRESERVE VIEWS
• CANOE KAYAK LAUNCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private heated in-ground pool with spa; Pool features: gunite construction, salt water system, lighting, screen enclosure, child safety fence; Total rooms: 8; Building area total 3,509 sq ft; living area 2,395 sq ft; Lot about 0.17 acres (approx. 683 m²)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Enclave at Twin Rivers and Twin Rivers Association; Monthly HOA $89; Quarterly fee $227.50; Association fees required; Clubhouse; Dog park; Playground; Sidewalks; Golf carts allowed; Deed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3-car garage; Garage with opener; Oversized garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler (recycled)
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories; Faces west; PUD zoning; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Block, stucco and frame construction; Metal and tile roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Thermostat
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-400/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $479k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $464k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $464k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,635/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($114k/yr) (locally 219% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $463,535 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.47%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $634,675
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14314 17th Ct E	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,129 (-11%)	5mo	$462,500	$217	73
14514 20th St E	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,197 (-8%)	2mo	$450,000	$205	64
1825 Twin Rivers Trl	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,309 (-4%)	11mo	$730,000	$316	64
14620 20th St E	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,197 (-8%)	3mo	$413,500	$188	60
1012 145th Street Cir NE	0.69mi	3/2.5	2,485 (+4%)	6mo	$715,000	$288	55
14519 Banks Ct	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,170 (-9%)	1mo	$444,999	$205	51
988 145th Street Cir NE	0.71mi	3/3.0	2,651 (+11%)	1mo	$750,000	$283	48
1914 Twin Rivers Trl	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,532 (+6%)	22mo	$670,000	$265	46
1028 Fernleaf Run	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,333 (-3%)	15mo	$515,000	$221	44
15425 Mulholland Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,565 (+7%)	4mo	$845,000	$329	43
14921 Barrows Bluff Ter	0.69mi	3/3.0	2,610 (+9%)	12mo	$520,000	$199	43
13805 22nd Ct E	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,446 (+2%)	23mo	$660,000	$270	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-94,015
• Equity at exit: $72,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-135,953
• Equity at exit: $41,934

Cash invested: $135,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,311/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$164
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$973
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,678

Max offer price $479,119

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $104	+0% $-33	+5% $-171	+10% $-308
Rent	-10% $-399	-5% $-216	+0% $-33	+5% $150	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $90	base $-33	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,250
• Closing costs: $14,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1043 145th Street Cir NE Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2600	$7,000	$2.69	23d	1	0.71mi
743 129th St NE Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2421	$3,950	$1.63	25d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $164 · $1,968/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $485,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $485,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $485,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $485,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $485,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,311 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,311 · $359/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,168
• − Property taxes: −$4,311
• − Insurance: −$7,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,450
• − Management: −$4,450
• − HOA: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$14,109
• Taxable loss: −$8,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,010
• After-tax cash flow: $1,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+10.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $485,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-28 Sold (MLS) $448,090 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-09 Listed $438,015 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+168.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,311 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.