3909 Reche Rd #185 · Fallbrook, CA 92028

$299,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2015 Est $228k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just reduced and ready to sell quickly. This is a 2015 Golden West doublewide manufactured home with a split floor plan, 3 spacious bedrooms and 1.75 baths. Resort-style living suitable for all ages. Please pardon the moving boxes! Just imagine living your best life here. .. . many amenities to choose from! This home is nestled in a live oak grove with beautiful mountain view in the picturesque Fallbrook hills. Relax in the inviting pool or spa, work out at the gym, play billiards, or challenge others to a game of ping pong at the Clubhouse. Attend seasonal holiday parties, citrus share or yard sales. Or, take a neighborhood trail hikes and enjoy the running creeks and waterfalls, towering

Key facts

• Billiards
• Spa
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• MOUNTAIN VIEW
• INVITING POOL
• SPA
• GYM
• BILLIARDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Rent includes association dues, trash and cable TV; Park name: Valley Oaks Park; Pets: cats allowed
• Financial info: Land lease (monthly) — park lease
• HOA & community: Association: Valley Oaks Park (monthly fees); Association amenities include pool, spa, clubhouse, billiard room, hiking trails, picnic area, biking, golf course access, maintenance of grounds, multipurpose recreational room, cable TV, trash and utilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Attached carport providing 3 carport spaces (total 4 parking spaces)
• Security: Fire and smoke detection system; Smoke detector
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (220V in kitchen and laundry); Natural gas connected/available; Cable connected/available; Telephone available
• Home design: Single-story; Entry on main level; Mobile home remains (27' x 48')
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Tie-down foundation; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Front porch; In-ground community pool (fenced, filtered); Sprinkler drip system; Close to clubhouse; Level with street; One shed on property; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range; Built-in range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Ice maker; Water line to refrigerator; Water heater unit; Kitchen island; Pots & pan drawers; Self-closing drawers
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; All bedrooms on main level; Walk-in closet
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bath; One 3/4 bath; Separate tub and walk-in shower; Double sinks; Bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling (gas); Central furnace / forced air heating (natural gas and electric)
• Interior features: Partially furnished; Ceiling fan(s); Pantry; Open floor plan; Copper full plumbing; Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Fire and smoke detection system; Smoke detector; Double-pane windows; Skylights; Blinds; Private in-ground spa
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Laundry area on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.3% in Fallbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,364 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Fallbrook Union High (suburban): math 32% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #183 of 517 in CA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $300k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.39%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,096
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3909 Reche Rd #52	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,152 (0%)	8mo	$115,000	$100	92
3909 Reche Rd #194	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,231 (+7%)	7mo	$250,000	$203	78
3909 Reche #65	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (+1%)	23mo	$229,630	$198	75
3909 Reche Rd #183	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	14mo	$270,000	$208	62
3909 Reche Rd #214	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	15mo	$230,000	$177	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-42,030
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-50,099
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92028

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $444	-5% $341	+0% $237	+5% $133	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $6	-5% $121	+0% $237	+5% $352	+10% $468
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $313	base $237	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4131 Cyprus Island Ct Fallbrook, CA	2.0	2.0	1432	$3,195	$2.23	0d	1	0.79mi
3043 Ridge Creek Dr Unit Casi Fallbrook, CA	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $299,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $305,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $305,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-03-25
    listed $305,000 Active
16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-10-10
    listed $305,000 Active
18. 2024-07-10
    historical
19. 2024-04-12
    listed $305,900 Active
20. 2024-04-11
    historical
21. 2021-05-04
    soldstatus $145,000 Closed Sale
22. 2021-03-29
    status Pending Sale
23. 2021-03-08
    price $145,000
24. 2021-02-12
    price $154,900
25. 2020-12-31
    price $159,000
26. 2020-11-18
    listed $169,000 Active
27. 2019-12-14
    historical
28. 2019-12-14
    historical
29. 2019-10-03
    price $169,900
30. 2019-10-02
    price $169,900
31. 2019-09-28
    listed $169,000 Active
32. 2019-09-28
    listed $169,000 Active
33. 2017-10-27
    soldstatus $125,000 Sold
34. 2017-10-27
    soldstatus $125,000
35. 2017-10-13
    status Pending
36. 2017-10-04
    historical
37. 2017-08-24
    listed $135,000 Active
38. 2017-08-24
    listed $135,000
39. 2017-08-01
    historical
40. 2017-07-31
    historical
41. 2017-07-20
    status Active
42. 2017-06-26
    status Pending
43. 2017-04-03
    listed $125,000 Active
44. 2017-04-02
    listed $125,000
45. 2017-03-04
    historical
46. 2017-03-03
    historical
47. 2016-11-15
    price $120,000
48. 2016-11-05
    listed $128,500 Active
49. 2016-11-03
    listed $120,000
50. 2016-10-14
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,806
• − Management: −$2,806
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$2,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$493
• After-tax cash flow: $3,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallbrook Union High
• NCES district ID: 0613530
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,644
• Composite: 39.17/100
• National rank: #4025
• State rank: #183 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fallbrook

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1364
• US rank: #27057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 52,227
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,227
• Household income: $111,290
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1384.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.50%
• Current HPI: 320.7162
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+103.3% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $305,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $305,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-10 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-04-12 Listed $305,900 SDMLS
• 2024-04-11 Coming Soon — SDMLS
• 2021-05-04 Sold (MLS) $145,000 CRMLS
• 2021-03-29 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-03-08 Price Changed $145,000 CRMLS
• 2021-02-12 Price Changed $154,900 CRMLS
• 2020-12-31 Price Changed $159,000 CRMLS
• 2020-11-18 Listed $169,000 CRMLS
• 2019-12-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-12-14 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2019-10-03 Price Changed $169,900 SDMLS
• 2019-10-02 Price Changed $169,900 CRMLS
• 2019-09-28 Listed $169,000 CRMLS
• 2019-09-28 Listed $169,000 SDMLS
• 2017-10-27 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CRMLS
• 2017-10-27 Sold (MLS) $125,000 SDMLS
• 2017-10-13 Pending — SDMLS
• 2017-10-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-08-24 Listed $135,000 SDMLS
• 2017-08-24 Listed $135,000 CRMLS
• 2017-08-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2017-07-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-07-20 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2017-06-26 Pending — SDMLS
• 2017-04-03 Listed $125,000 SDMLS
• 2017-04-02 Listed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2017-03-04 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2017-03-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-11-15 Price Changed $120,000 SDMLS
• 2016-11-05 Listed $128,500 SDMLS
• 2016-11-03 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2016-10-14 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2016-08-03 Price Changed $131,000 SDMLS
• 2016-05-12 Price Changed $135,000 SDMLS
• 2016-05-02 Price Changed $140,000 SDMLS
• 2016-04-20 Listed $150,000 SDMLS