5205 Botany Dr · Holiday, FL 34690

$144,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2005 4,250 sqft lot Est $170k · 15% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Better than new! Gorgeous 6-month old 3/2 in desirable 55+ community, close to Pinellas & beaches. Over $20,000 in upgrades & add-ons, insulated shed with electric & A/C, huge designer carport, lovely screened back porch, landscape curbing front & rear, custom blinds & curtains, whole house water softener & much more. Own your own land, low association fees, pet friendly neighborhood, no flood required. Offered fully furnished with a home warranty.

Key facts

• Trex decking patio
• Fenced
• Parking for 2-3 cars

Tags

• PARKING FOR 2-3 CARS
• 2 ADDITIONAL STORAGE UNITS
• FENCED
• TREX DECKING PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.1 acre); Living area reported as 1,356 sq ft; total building area reported as 1,920 sq ft
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Buena Vista Manor HOA) with required annual fee of $200 (monthly equivalent $16.67); association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential modular home; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Metal siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as modular construction
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Asphalt-paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $114k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.37%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,884
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2326 Prestige Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+13%)	3mo	$150,000	$112	65
2402 Prestige Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,012 (-15%)	9mo	$145,000	$143	60
1850 Mary Ln	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-11%)	1mo	$114,000	$108	52
3035 Buckner Ct	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-11%)	18mo	$193,000	$183	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-10,238
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,171
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,131/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,283

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2412 Arcadia Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1360	$1,603	$1.18	24d	1	0.22mi
2552 Chancery Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,595	$1.95	24d	1	0.34mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	24d	1	0.37mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	18d	1	0.39mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	5d	1	0.42mi
5338 Nancy Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,430	$1.66	24d	1	0.46mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	0.46mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	5d	1	0.52mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	2d	1	0.60mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	5d	1	0.65mi
5606 Mirada Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,550	$1.79	14d	1	0.67mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	5d	1	0.73mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,600	$1.33	5d	1	0.73mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	24d	1	0.78mi
3252 Peterborough St Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,631	$1.26	5d	1	0.81mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	14d	1	0.85mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	24d	1	0.89mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	24d	1	0.91mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,400	$1.70	24d	1	0.94mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	2d	9	0.96mi
5637 Golden Nugget Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.5	1200	$1,375	$1.15	24d	1	0.96mi
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	5d	1	0.98mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	2d	13	0.99mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	20d	1	1.00mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	24d	1	1.01mi
1551 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	11d	1	1.03mi
1551 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	24d	1	1.03mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	24d	1	1.03mi
5709 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	727	$1,095	$1.51	14d	1	1.04mi
5723 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	24d	1	1.05mi
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	1.07mi
1525 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,090	$1.56	20d	1	1.07mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	24d	1	1.08mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	24d	1	1.08mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	5d	1	1.09mi
5906 Elkhorn Blvd Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,395	$1.24	14d	1	1.16mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	24d	1	1.16mi
1254 Firecreek Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	2d	1	1.22mi
1330 Chancellor Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,550	$1.86	24d	1	1.25mi
5913 Appletree Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1028	$2,300	$2.24	18d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $144,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    listed $149,000 Active
15. 2005-09-08
    soldstatus $113,800
16. 2005-08-29
    soldstatus $113,800 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Better than new! Gorgeous 6-month old 3/2 in desirable 55+ community, close to Pinellas & beaches. Over $20,000 in upgrades & add-ons, insulated shed with electric & A/C, huge designer carport, lovely screened back porch, landscape curbing front & rear, custom blinds & curtains, whole house water softener & much more. Own your own land, low association fees, pet friendly neighborhood, no flood required. Offered fully furnished with a home warranty.

17. 2005-06-01
    listed $115,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Better than new! Gorgeous 6-month old 3/2 in desirable 55+ community, close to Pinellas & beaches. Over $20,000 in upgrades & add-ons, insulated shed with electric & A/C, huge designer carport, lovely screened back porch, landscape curbing front & rear, custom blinds & curtains, whole house water softener & much more. Own your own land, low association fees, pet friendly neighborhood, no flood required. Offered fully furnished with a home warranty.

18. 1998-12-08
    soldstatus $25,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,131 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,131 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,131
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,576
• − Management: −$1,576
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $1,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$280
• After-tax cash flow: $3,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+484.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $113,800 Public Records
• 2005-08-29 Sold (MLS) $113,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-01 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,131 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.