2014 Yates St · Houston, TX 77020

$385,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · Land · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 1,950 sqft lot ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience modern luxury in this stunning three-story single family property, perfectly designed for contemporary living. The striking exterior architecture welcomes you into a spacious, light-filled interior featuring high-end finishes and an open-concept layout. The gourmet kitchen boasts sleek white cabinetry, quartz countertops, and a large island that flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, making it an ideal space for entertaining. Large windows throughout the home offer incredible views of the city skyline, providing a beautiful backdrop for everyday life. This home offers ultimate privacy with 3 generously sized bedrooms, 3 dedicated full bathrooms, along with 1 convenien

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Gourmet kitchen
• Incredible views

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• INCREDIBLE VIEWS
• SPA INSPIRED BATHROOM
• FREESTANDING SOAKING TUB
• PRIVATE BALCONY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Built in 2026; Built by NewGen Builders LLC
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Third level) — approx. 15 x 13; Bedroom (Second level) — approx. 13 x 11; Bedroom (Third level) — approx. 13 x 11
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Separate shower; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $385,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $349,297.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (35.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fleming Middle (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 384 students, 97% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,480/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 969% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $248,015 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,297
• List price: $385,000
• Delta: 5.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $186,489
• Equity at exit: $314,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $561,018
• Equity at exit: $678,607

Cash invested: $97,803 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,832
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,062/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,615

Max offer price $330,492

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,324
• Closing costs: $10,479
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	20d	1	0.11mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	20d	1	0.11mi
4706 Hershe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2283	$3,300	$1.45	43d	1	0.14mi
5217 Noble St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,750	$1.45	43d	1	0.39mi
1222 Upton St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2055	$2,600	$1.27	43d	1	0.46mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	22d	1	0.56mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,237	$3.00	3d	1	0.58mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	43d	1	0.58mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	7d	1	0.73mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	43d	1	0.73mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	43d	1	0.74mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	7d	1	0.94mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	43d	1	0.94mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	43d	1	0.95mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	43d	1	1.02mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	43d	1	1.03mi
1023 Hahlo St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	5d	1	1.07mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	7d	1	1.17mi
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	43d	1	1.18mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$3,094	$1.55	5d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $385,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $385,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $385,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    historical
13. 2026-05-18
    listed $385,000 Active 985-char remark
14. 2026-04-30
    listed $369,000 Active
15. 2026-04-30
    historical
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $379,900 Active
17. 2026-04-11
    historical
18. 2026-03-23
    listed $2,700
19. 2026-03-22
    listed $389,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,062 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,046 · $587/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,984/yr (+$499/mo · 563.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,566
• − Property taxes: −$1,062
• − Insurance: −$1,746
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − Depreciation: −$10,161
• Taxable loss: −$7,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,809
• After-tax cash flow: $531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $385,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $369,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $379,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed for Rent $2,700 HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $389,900 HARMLS