11823 Hwy 63 W · Jasper, TX 75977

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Fair condition 3.93 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just under 4 acres on Hwy 63 West in Wiergate, conveniently located between Burkeville & Jasper, this 2 bed 1 bath Hardiplank home offers country living w/ easy access to town. Open concept living, dining & kitchen create a functional layout, & plumbing is already in place for a 2nd bath. Home includes a 2 car attached carport & fenced yard for kids or pets. Property also features an older home for storage, plus a storage building w/ two lean-to’s for added space. A concrete slab w/ electricity is ready for an RV or additional living setup. Equipped w/ conventional septic & water well. With its acreage, versatility, and existing infrastructure, this property is full of potential—whether you’re looking for a homestead, investment opportunity, or a peaceful place to call home.

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Fenced yard
• Storage building

Tags

• PLUMBING IN PLACE FOR 2ND BATH
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• FENCED YARD
• STORAGE BUILDING
• CONCRETE SLAB WITH ELECTRICITY
• READY FOR RV

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($942 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,225 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Burkeville ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #966 of 1,141 in TX (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.91%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $20,242
• Equity at exit: $38,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $58,094
• Equity at exit: $58,901

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75977

• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $102,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $102,000 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-04-11
    listed $102,000 Active 832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (832 chars)

    Just under 4 acres on Hwy 63 West in Wiergate, conveniently located between Burkeville & Jasper, this 2 bed 1 bath Hardiplank home offers country living w/ easy access to town. Open concept living, dining & kitchen create a functional layout, & plumbing is already in place for a 2nd bath. Home includes a 2 car attached carport & fenced yard for kids or pets. Property also features an older home for storage, plus a storage building w/ two lean-to’s for added space. A concrete slab w/ electricity is ready for an RV or additional living setup. Equipped w/ conventional septic & water well. With its acreage, versatility, and existing infrastructure, this property is full of potential—whether you’re looking for a homestead, investment opportunity, or a peaceful place to call home.

18. 2026-04-10
    listed $102,000 Active 820-char remark

    Show marketing remark (820 chars)

    Just under 4 acres on Hwy 63 West in Wiergate, conveniently located between Burkeville & Jasper, this 2 bed 1 bath Hardiplank home offers country living w/ easy access to town. Open concept living, dining & kitchen create a functional layout, & plumbing is already in place for a 2nd bath. Home includes a 2 car attached carport & fenced yard for kids or pets. Property also features an older home for storage, plus a storage building w/ two lean-to's for added space. A concrete slab w/ electricity is ready for an RV or additional living setup. Equipped w/ conventional septic & water well. With its acreage, versatility, and existing infrastructure, this property is full of potential—whether you're looking for a homestead, investment opportunity, or a peaceful place to call home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$904
• − Management: −$904
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$135
• After-tax cash flow: $1,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires moderate renovations, focusing on the kitchen and bath areas, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed subfloor in kitchen and bath — Structural damage
• Major Missing cabinets in kitchen and bath — Aesthetic and functional issues
• Major Exposed subfloor in kitchen and bath — Structural damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating the kitchen and bath — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both Rebuilding the kitchen and bath cabinets — Restores functionality and enhances value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed subfloor in kitchen and bath · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing cabinets in kitchen and bath · Aesthetic and functional issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed subfloor in kitchen and bath · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating the kitchen and bath — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Rebuilding the kitchen and bath cabinets — Restores functionality and enhances value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burkeville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,753
• Composite: 29.92/100
• National rank: #11672
• State rank: #966 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1225
• US rank: #21385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 529

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 34%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Russian 3% Lithuanian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $102,000 BBOR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $102,000 Deep East Texas MLS