18420 Christanna Hwy · Lawrenceville, VA 23868

$50,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 1930 1.00 ac lot $32/sqft · 71% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

EHO-HUD Case #541-740558 IE (Insured w/ Escrow). Opportunity on Christanna Highway! Set on a spacious 1 acre parcel just outside Lawrenceville, this property offers a rural setting with convenient access to town. The home is in need of updates and repairs and is best suited for buyers ready to take on a project. The existing structure offers potential for renovation, or the lot itself may appeal to those considering new construction or other uses (subject to local zoning). With plenty of outdoor space and road frontage, there’s flexibility to bring your ideas to life. Being sold as-is. Bring your vision and make the most of this property’s potential!

Key facts

• Road frontage
• 1 acre parcel
• Rural setting

Tags

• 1 ACRE PARCEL
• RURAL SETTING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO TOWN
• PLENTY OF OUTDOOR SPACE
• ROAD FRONTAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (unpaved)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Asbestos, brick, drywall, and frame construction; Composition roof; Partial basement
• Exterior features: Porch; Side porch; Unpaved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooking; Stove
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Dining area; Fireplace; Laminate counters; Paneling/Wainscoting
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $768 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#258 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #130 of 131 in VA (top 99%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 37 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $982 appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Brunswick County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.84%
• DSCR: 3.93
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,000
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -70.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
704 Second Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-7%)	1mo	$170,000	$116	46
912 First Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,435 (-9%)	10mo	$193,000	$134	42
19061 Christanna Hwy	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,346 (-15%)	10mo	$259,000	$192	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $52,250
• Equity at exit: $19,624

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.64×
• Total profit: $120,928
• Equity at exit: $28,184

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23868

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $184/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $768

Break-even live

Break-even rent $378

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
512 Maple St Lawrenceville, VA	3.0	1.0	1968	$1,350	$0.69	21d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 658-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $50,000 Active 660-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $184 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: +$226/yr (+$19/mo · 122.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$184
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $8,919
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,140
• After-tax cash flow: $7,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100480
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,085
• Composite: 29.44/100
• National rank: #6520
• State rank: #130 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lawrenceville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #9024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,215

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,860 people
• By 2030: 13,946 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 12,029 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 10,370 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 7,708 · -48.1%
• By 2100: 5,718 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 27% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.5) · D 54.1% · R 45.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: 26.5pp · 2024: 8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.5 2020: D+15.0 2016: D+18.7 2012: D+25.3 2008: D+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Current HPI: 98.6309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $50,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $184 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.