213 Lakeside Ranch Cir · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$54,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 215 Days on market

Built 1976 3,999 sqft lot $145/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MAJOR PRICE IMPROVEMENT! Experience relaxed Florida living in this furnished 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in the gated 55+ community of Lakeside Ranch. The home features laminate flooring with carpeted bedrooms, central A/C, and a roof that is only 2 years old, offering added peace of mind for the next owner. Residents enjoy an impressive array of amenities, including a heated pool, library, shuffleboard, horseshoes, billiards, scheduled community activities, trailer storage, and on-site laundry facilities. This privately owned community is supported by a self-contained water and sewer system with backup generators and offers a low monthly HOA fee of $145, which includes wate

Key facts

• Gated community
• Laundry facilities
• Low monthly hoa fee

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• HEATED POOL
• LAUNDRY FACILITIES
• BACKUP GENERATORS
• LOW MONTHLY HOA FEE
• ACCESS TO LAKE HENRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association recreation owned; Road surface: asphalt
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $145; total annual fees $1,740; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $145); Association amenities include clubhouse, community laundry, shuffleboard court, pool; Association fee covers pool, grounds maintenance, and water; Association approval required to purchase; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Golf cart parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public utilities; No water source listed
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-wide; One level; North-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on vinyl/metal construction
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Storage; Private boat ramp (lake access)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combined
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $530 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.40%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $23,774
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $59,737
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$145
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $530

Break-even live

Break-even rent $711

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $546	+0% $530	+5% $515	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $421	-5% $476	+0% $530	+5% $585	+10% $640
Rate	-1.0pp $558	-0.5pp $544	base $530	+0.5pp $516	+1.0pp $502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $145 · $1,740/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerpoolsecurity

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $54,900 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-04-07
   price $54,900
3. 2026-02-12
   price $64,900
4. 2026-01-21
   price $74,900
5. 2025-10-28
   listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,274 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,274 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,327
• − Management: −$1,327
• − HOA: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $5,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,434
• After-tax cash flow: $4,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-31.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $74,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,274 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.