2970 Lordville Rd · Hancock, NY 13783

$39,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 189 Days on market

Built 1900 Poor condition 5,663 sqft lot $35/sqft · 72% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Formidable Project! The basement flooded and was never remediated. There is substantial mold in the basement. The location is amazing, located next to a NYS access point to the Delaware River and its huge recreational opportunity. Extrodinary trout fishing.

Key facts

• Trout fishing
• Delaware river
• 5,663 sq ft lot

Tags

• DELAWARE RIVER
• RECREATIONAL OPPORTUNITY
• TROUT FISHING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $39k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.4% vs local median 2.4% in Hancock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#454 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Hancock Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #649 of 755 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($270 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.32%
• DSCR: 4.35
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,540
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -71.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $60,723
• Equity at exit: $35,134

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.5%
• Equity multiple: 14.55×
• Total profit: $147,935
• Equity at exit: $75,768

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13783

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $425

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $646	-5% $632	+0% $619	+5% $606	+10% $592
Rent	-10% $523	-5% $571	+0% $619	+5% $667	+10% $714
Rate	-1.0pp $639	-0.5pp $629	base $619	+0.5pp $609	+1.0pp $599

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 260-char remark

   Show marketing remark (260 chars)

   A Formidable Project! The basement flooded and was never remediated. There is substantial mold in the basement. The location is amazing, located next to a NYS access point to the Delaware River and its huge recreational opportunity. Extrodinary trout fishing.

2. 2025-11-06
   listed $39,000 Active 260-char remark

   Show marketing remark (260 chars)

   A Formidable Project! The basement flooded and was never remediated. There is substantial mold in the basement. The location is amazing, located next to a NYS access point to the Delaware River and its huge recreational opportunity. Extrodinary trout fishing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $7,288
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,749
• After-tax cash flow: $5,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and remediation, including addressing basement flooding and mold. It has potential due to its location but needs significant work to be move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major basement flooding — Basement flooded and never remediated
• Major mold — Substantial mold in the basement

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improves curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both remediation of basement flooding and mold — Essential for health and safety, and to address the listed issues

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
basement flooding · Basement flooded and never remediated	Major	$15,000–50,000
mold · Substantial mold in the basement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improves curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both remediation of basement flooding and mold — Essential for health and safety, and to address the listed issues ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hancock Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613560
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,208
• Composite: 35.99/100
• National rank: #9539
• State rank: #649 of 755 in NY

Livability — Hancock

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #454
• US rank: #7935

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,200

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.62%
• Current HPI: 484.0977
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $39,000 UNYREIS