730 Pheasant Run Dr · Murphy, TX 75094

$715,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2004 0.26 ac lot $176/sqft · 5% below area Est $771k · 7% under $38/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home! This stunning three story residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and style. The home’s layout is designed for versatility and privacy, making it ideal for multigenerational living or growing families. Step outside to your private backyard oasis, complete with a sparkling swimming pool; perfect for summer fun and outdoor gatherings. Whether you’re looking for space to spread out, areas to entertain, or a beautiful neighborhood to call home, this property checks all the boxes. Don’t miss your chance to own this exceptional home, schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Pool

Tags

• THREE STORY RESIDENCE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• SPARKLING SWIMMING POOL
• MULTIGENERATIONAL LIVING
• BEAUTIFUL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $715k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $715k).
• Recommended offer: $651k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 2.9% in Murphy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#17 in TX, #1,218 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Plano ISD (urban): math 52% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #90 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $200k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($651k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $650,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.47%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $770,897
• List price: $715,000
• Delta: -7.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
527 Buffalo Bend Ct	0.29mi	5/3.5 (-1)	4,087 (+1%)	2mo	$799,000	$195	77
535 Cedarbird Trl	0.28mi	5/4.0 (-1)	4,117 (+2%)	7mo	$725,000	$176	73
926 Falcon Trl	0.37mi	5/3.5 (-1)	4,073 (+0%)	5mo	$675,000	$166	71
433 Shady Oaks Dr	0.27mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,783 (-7%)	2mo	$650,000	$172	70
526 Mockingbird Dr	0.39mi	5/4.0 (-1)	4,474 (+10%)	3mo	$895,000	$200	57
338 Greenfield Dr	0.47mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,785 (-7%)	2mo	$724,900	$192	57
341 Greenfield Dr	0.44mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,583 (-12%)	0mo	$615,000	$172	55
432 Huntington Dr	0.35mi	5/4.0 (-1)	4,475 (+10%)	8mo	$759,000	$170	55
448 Huntington Dr	0.31mi	5/4.0 (-1)	4,475 (+10%)	11mo	$825,000	$184	54
431 Dakota Dr	0.42mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,568 (-12%)	1mo	$695,000	$195	53
227 Justin Rd	0.74mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,960 (-2%)	5mo	$700,000	$177	52
830 Mustang Ridge Dr	0.33mi	5/4.0 (-1)	4,528 (+12%)	10mo	$775,000	$171	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $112,535
• Equity at exit: $106,609

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $392,765
• Equity at exit: $61,820

Cash invested: $200,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75094

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,750
• Tax from tax record: −$983 /mo · $11,794/yr
• Insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,300
• Net cashflow: $3,582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,416

Max offer price $715,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,987	-5% $3,785	+0% $3,582	+5% $3,380	+10% $3,177
Rent	-10% $2,717	-5% $3,150	+0% $3,582	+5% $4,015	+10% $4,447
Rate	-1.0pp $3,942	-0.5pp $3,764	base $3,582	+0.5pp $3,397	+1.0pp $3,208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $178,750
• Closing costs: $21,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Lochwood Dr Murphy, TX	5.0	3.0	3761	$3,750	$1.00	44d	1	0.65mi
139 Wentwood Dr Murphy, TX	5.0	3.5	3103	$3,250	$1.05	44d	1	0.74mi
4325 Angelina Dr Unit 1019521P Plano, TX	6.0	3.5	3379	$22,166	$6.56	44d	1	1.04mi
4325 Angelina Dr Plano, TX	6.0	3.5	3381	$10,950	$3.24	44d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $715,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $715,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $715,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $715,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $715,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $715,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $715,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $715,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $715,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $715,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $715,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $715,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $715,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $715,000 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home! This stunning three story residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and style. The home’s layout is designed for versatility and privacy, making it ideal for multigenerational living or growing families. Step outside to your private backyard oasis, complete with a sparkling swimming pool; perfect for summer fun and outdoor gatherings. Whether you’re looking for space to spread out, areas to entertain, or a beautiful neighborhood to call home, this property checks all the boxes. Don’t miss your chance to own this exceptional home, schedule a showing today!

15. 2026-03-12
    listed $740,000 Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home! This stunning three story residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and style. The home’s layout is designed for versatility and privacy, making it ideal for multigenerational living or growing families. Step outside to your private backyard oasis, complete with a sparkling swimming pool; perfect for summer fun and outdoor gatherings. Whether you’re looking for space to spread out, areas to entertain, or a beautiful neighborhood to call home, this property checks all the boxes. Don’t miss your chance to own this exceptional home, schedule a showing today!

16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-09-27
    price $769,999
18. 2025-07-02
    price $770,000
19. 2025-06-02
    listed $785,000 Active
20. 2019-07-15
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2019-07-15
    soldstatus
22. 2019-07-12
    status Pending
23. 2019-06-17
    historical Active Option Contract
24. 2019-06-10
    listed $490,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,794 · $983/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,084 · $1,090/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,290/yr (+$108/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $131,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,051
• − Property taxes: −$11,794
• − Insurance: −$3,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,512
• − Management: −$10,512
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$20,800
• Taxable income: $33,700
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,088
• After-tax cash flow: $34,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835100
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $79,861
• Composite: 48.54/100
• National rank: #2115
• State rank: #90 of 826 in TX

Livability — Murphy

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #1218

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murphy, TX
• City population: 23,669
• Population (ZIP): 23,669

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Asian 38% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Other Indo-European 16% Vietnamese 7% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.09%
• Current HPI: 240.1094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+45.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $715,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $740,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $769,999 NTREIS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $770,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $785,000 NTREIS
• 2019-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-07-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-06-17 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-06-10 Listed $490,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,794 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.