489 Bill West Rd · Telford, TN 37681

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1990 1.97 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 3 bedroom, 2 bath updated home. All stainless steel appliances included. This home is situated on 1.97 acres with fencing, privacy and scenic mountain views. Master bedroom has en suite bath. There are three storage sheds as well as an unoccupied and empty single wide mobile home currently used for storage. This home has it all at a great price. Some information taken from third parties. All information to be verified by purchaser(s) and their agent.

Key facts

• Privacy
• Fencing
• Three storage sheds

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• 1.97 ACRES
• FENCING
• PRIVACY
• SCENIC MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• THREE STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Gravel parking
• Security: Security features: other
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured house (single wide); One level; Residential single family
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Other foundation details; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Fencing in front and back yards; Outbuilding; Other exterior features; View present

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric heating; Forced air; Heat pump
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Basement present (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.8% in Telford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#422 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Washington County (suburban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #54 of 139 in TN (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West View School (math 11% / reading 23%, grade F, #709 of 952 statewide, top 77%, 311 students, 0% FRL); Jonesborough Middle School (math 27% / reading 25%, grade F, #144 of 333 statewide, top 44%, 416 students, 0% FRL); David Crockett High School (math 25% / reading 39%, grade F, #56 of 332 statewide, top 20%, 1,181 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 41% district-wide (41 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1,155 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (437 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $190k implies a 265% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,516 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $95,092
• Equity at exit: $171,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $286,646
• Equity at exit: $368,934

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37681

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $170,918

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-66	+0% $-131	+5% $-197	+10% $-262
Rent	-10% $-249	-5% $-190	+0% $-131	+5% $-72	+10% $-13
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-83	base $-131	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,900 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 174 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,900 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 161 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 160 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 159 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 158 DOM
18. 2025-12-23
    listed $189,900 Active
19. 2021-04-22
    soldstatus $52,000
20. 2004-09-10
    soldstatus $14,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$4,889
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,173
• After-tax cash flow: $-401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington County
• NCES district ID: 4704380
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,542
• Composite: 25.85/100
• National rank: #7350
• State rank: #54 of 139 in TN

Livability — Telford

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #26284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,720
• Population (ZIP): 6,031

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 132,816 people
• By 2030: 135,823 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 140,897 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 145,073 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 156,386 · +17.7%
• By 2100: 159,893 · +20.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.6% · R 69.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+36.2 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+38.5 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.43%
• Current HPI: 296.7409
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+1183.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $189,900 TVRMLS
• 2021-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $14,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $242 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.