6825 Capital Cir #204 · Sacramento, CA 95828

$42,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 78 Days on market

Built 1973 Average condition $59/sqft · 43% below area Est $74k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to family friendly Capital Estates. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great floor plan with the bedrooms on opposite ends of the home. The spacious kitchen is open to the living room with an additional kitchen counter separating the two. Luxury vinyl plank throughout with custom, sliding wood paneled barn doors accessing the bedrooms. Central heating with 2 window mounted A/C units. Stacked Washer and Dryer is included. This home offers a professionally built and matching shed. Nice concrete patio area for relaxing, plus a covered porch. The spacious yard allows for light gardening and is fully fenced. The home has been well maintained and ready for its new owner. The commun

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Spacious kitchen
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CONCRETE PATIO AREA
• COVERED PORCH
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• BEAUTIFUL LANDSCAPING
• CLUBHOUSE WITH KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $42k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.9% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leonardo Da Vinci (797 students, 35% FRL); Will C. Wood Middle (684 students, 90% FRL); Hiram W. Johnson High (1,733 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $294 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,950 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 109.17%
• DSCR: 5.86
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,994
• List price: $42,500
• Delta: -42.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6311 Convention Ln #100	0.21mi	2/2.0	768 (+7%)	6mo	$75,000	$98	74
6414 Capital Dr #20	0.35mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	10mo	$40,000	$56	71
6401 Capital Cir #17	0.37mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	21mo	$75,000	$104	61
6727 Capital Cir #225	0.15mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (-3%)	23mo	$60,000	$86	60
6025 Dias Ave #17	0.61mi	1/1.5 (-1)	757 (+5%)	15mo	$60,000	$79	44
6025 Dias Ave #112	0.58mi	2/1.0	800 (+11%)	24mo	$85,000	$106	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $56,985
• Equity at exit: $6,337

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.98×
• Total profit: $118,782
• Equity at exit: $3,675

Cash invested: $11,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95828

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$53 /mo · $638/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $1,083

Break-even live

Break-even rent $372

Max offer price $42,500

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,112	-5% $1,097	+0% $1,083	+5% $1,068	+10% $1,053
Rent	-10% $945	-5% $1,014	+0% $1,083	+5% $1,151	+10% $1,220
Rate	-1.0pp $1,104	-0.5pp $1,093	base $1,083	+0.5pp $1,072	+1.0pp $1,060

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,625
• Closing costs: $1,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5545 Sky Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	716	$1,630	$2.28	19d	7	0.32mi
6470 Stockton Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	856	$1,845	$2.16	45d	2	0.36mi
6125 Stockton Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	580	$1,395	$2.41	4d	5	0.73mi
6624 Lemon Hill Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,385	$2.13	3d	1	0.76mi
6500 47th St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	715	$1,650	$2.31	45d	7	1.14mi
7051 Bowling Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	716	$1,445	$2.02	4d	5	1.30mi
5028 Thurman Way Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,325	$2.21	5d	1	1.32mi
5102 Gordon Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,590	$2.45	45d	1	1.33mi
5100 Gordon Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,300	$2.00	45d	1	1.34mi
7474 La Mancha Way Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	777	$1,695	$2.18	0d	3	1.35mi
5364 Young St Unit 6 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,545	$2.06	6d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $42,500 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,500 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,500 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,500 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,500 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,500 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,500 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,500 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,500 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,500 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $42,500 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $42,500 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,500 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,500 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,500 Active 57 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,381
• − Property taxes: −$638
• − Insurance: −$212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,672
• − Management: −$1,672
• − Depreciation: −$1,236
• Taxable income: $13,094
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,143
• After-tax cash flow: $9,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears faded in some areas.
• Minor Landscaping — Landscaping appears somewhat unkempt and could benefit from trimming and reseeding.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and garden maintenance — A well-maintained garden would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances would make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears faded in some areas.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Landscaping appears somewhat unkempt and could benefit from trimming and reseeding.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and garden maintenance — A well-maintained garden would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances would make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,686
• Household income: $81,778
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1765.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 16% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Vietnamese 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 962.47
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B