68 Foster Ave #4 · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$615,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2023 691 sqft lot $628/sqft · 34% below area Est $931k · 34% under $822/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*** CAN NOT BE OWNER OCCUPIED. MUST RENT ANNUALLY!!! Discover a sophisticated hands-off investment in the heart of Hampton Bays. Completed in 2023, this designer townhome offers the perfect blend of modern luxury and high-demand waterfront appeal. Situated just one mile from Ponquogue Beach, this property is engineered for the discerning investor looking to capitalize on the Hamptons' year-round rental market. The Property Experience Designed to maximize its prime canal-front location, this unit offers breathtaking sunset views from both floors. Main Level: An open-concept living space that flows seamlessly onto a private canal-front deck, perfect for al fresco dining and watching the Sunset. Upper Level: The primary suite serves as a sanctuary, featuring a private waterfront balcony with panoramic views. Amenities: Residents enjoy access to a pristine gunite pool and professionally landscaped grounds within this exclusive development.

Key facts

• Waterfront balcony
• Canal front
• Gunite pool

Tags

• CANAL FRONT
• WATERFRONT BALCONY
• PRIVATE CANAL FRONT DECK
• GUNITE POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $615k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $789 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $615k).
• Recommended offer: $578k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,688/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $172k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($578k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $578,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $930,575
• List price: $615,000
• Delta: -33.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Foster Ave	0.17mi	1/1.0	855 (-13%)	14mo	$740,000	$865	58
39 Foster Ave	0.30mi	2/2.0 (+1)	900 (-8%)	14mo	$700,000	$778	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-13,827
• Equity at exit: $91,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $214,538
• Equity at exit: $53,174

Cash invested: $172,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,688 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,225
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,301/yr
• Insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$822
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,405
• Net cashflow: $789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,690

Max offer price $615,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,750
• Closing costs: $18,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
68 Foster Ave #12 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$18,000	$16.00	44d	1	0.03mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	24d	1	0.32mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	0.65mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $822 · $9,864/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpool

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $615,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $615,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $615,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $615,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $615,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $615,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $615,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $615,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $615,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $615,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $615,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $615,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $615,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $615,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $615,000 949-char remark

    Show marketing remark (949 chars)

    *** CAN NOT BE OWNER OCCUPIED. MUST RENT ANNUALLY!!! Discover a sophisticated hands-off investment in the heart of Hampton Bays. Completed in 2023, this designer townhome offers the perfect blend of modern luxury and high-demand waterfront appeal. Situated just one mile from Ponquogue Beach, this property is engineered for the discerning investor looking to capitalize on the Hamptons' year-round rental market. The Property Experience Designed to maximize its prime canal-front location, this unit offers breathtaking sunset views from both floors. Main Level: An open-concept living space that flows seamlessly onto a private canal-front deck, perfect for al fresco dining and watching the Sunset. Upper Level: The primary suite serves as a sanctuary, featuring a private waterfront balcony with panoramic views. Amenities: Residents enjoy access to a pristine gunite pool and professionally landscaped grounds within this exclusive development.

16. 2026-04-01
    listed $649,000 Active 949-char remark

    Show marketing remark (949 chars)

    *** CAN NOT BE OWNER OCCUPIED. MUST RENT ANNUALLY!!! Discover a sophisticated hands-off investment in the heart of Hampton Bays. Completed in 2023, this designer townhome offers the perfect blend of modern luxury and high-demand waterfront appeal. Situated just one mile from Ponquogue Beach, this property is engineered for the discerning investor looking to capitalize on the Hamptons' year-round rental market. The Property Experience Designed to maximize its prime canal-front location, this unit offers breathtaking sunset views from both floors. Main Level: An open-concept living space that flows seamlessly onto a private canal-front deck, perfect for al fresco dining and watching the Sunset. Upper Level: The primary suite serves as a sanctuary, featuring a private waterfront balcony with panoramic views. Amenities: Residents enjoy access to a pristine gunite pool and professionally landscaped grounds within this exclusive development.

17. 2021-06-07
    soldstatus $17,232,832
18. 2018-01-02
    historical
19. 2017-04-14
    listed $850,000 New
20. 2017-01-03
    historical
21. 2016-04-20
    listed $850,000 New
22. 2016-04-13
    historical
23. 2015-12-17
    price $795,000
24. 2015-10-26
    listed $825,000 New
25. 2015-04-25
    historical
26. 2014-08-09
    listed $750,000
27. 2014-04-22
    soldstatus $4,100,000
28. 2013-10-22
    soldstatus $2,000,000
29. 2013-07-03
    soldstatus $2,160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,301 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,347 · $529/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,046/yr (+$337/mo · 175.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,450
• − Property taxes: −$2,301
• − Insurance: −$3,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,421
• − Management: −$6,421
• − HOA: −$9,864
• − Depreciation: −$17,891
• Taxable loss: −$162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$39
• After-tax cash flow: $9,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-71.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $615,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $17,232,832 Public Records
• 2018-01-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-14 Listed $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-20 Listed $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-17 Price Changed $795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-26 Listed $825,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-09 Listed $750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $4,100,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $2,000,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $2,160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,301 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.