127 E Northside Dr · Lake Wales, FL 33853

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 332 Days on market

Built 1987 5,746 sqft lot ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A hidden gem is finally on the market for you to call home. This charming 3 -bedroom, 2-bathroom home has an open floor-plan with clear lines of sight from the living room, dining room, the kitchen which features stainless steel appliances and the large family room with a beautiful fireplace. The primary bedroom is highlighted by a private bathroom, while the secondary and third bedrooms are generously sized and shares the functional hall bathroom. The home offers two separate entrances for added convenience, an oversized backyard with a shed for outdoor storage and a covered carport. You'll also appreciate the home's long driveway affording plenty of guest parking. Recent upgrades include

Key facts

• Large family room
• Open floor-plan
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR-PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• TWO SEPARATE ENTRANCES
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Facing east
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Asphalt road frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 115

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Split bedroom layout; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($150/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,659 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.32%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-26,011
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-21,909
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33853

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $744/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,261

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $59	+0% $12	+5% $-34	+10% $-81
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-38	+0% $12	+5% $63	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $54	base $12	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 E Northside Dr #3 Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	24d	1	0.05mi
609 Washington Ave Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,549	$1.11	14d	1	0.80mi
425 F St Unit 2 Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	977	$1,195	$1.22	14d	1	0.86mi
133 W Park Ave Unit B Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 332 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 331 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $165,000 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   status $165,000 Pending 329 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 329 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 328 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 327 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 326 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $165,000 Active 323 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 321 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 320 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 319 DOM
13. 2026-05-06
    price $165,000
14. 2026-03-24
    price $175,000
15. 2026-01-09
    price $210,000
16. 2025-09-19
    price $215,000
17. 2025-08-13
    price $220,000
18. 2025-07-16
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $744 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$625/yr (+$52/mo · 84.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$744
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,226
• − Management: −$1,226
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,743
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$658
• After-tax cash flow: $808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Wales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 30,351
• Population (ZIP): 12,385

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 36% Black 19% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 18% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.98%
• Current HPI: 333.8292
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+22.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $744 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.