501 Harrington Rd · North Creek, NY 12886

$179,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1960 0.52 ac lot $280/sqft · 35% below area Est $274k · 35% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Simply special waterfront camp. Cookouts, fireside stories, trout fishing, and falling asleep to the sound of waters of Mill Creek. Rustic and functional 2-bedroom 1-bath cottage. Open living, dining and kitchen and screened in porch. Large open yard and 2 sheds. Short distance to North Creek and I87 in Warrensburg. A terrific Adirondack location.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Large open yard
• Waterfront camp

Tags

• WATERFRONT CAMP
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• LARGE OPEN YARD
• ADIRONDACK LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway; Total of 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Holding tank and septic tank for sewer; Seasonal water source
• Home design: Single family residence; Entry level: First floor living spaces noted; Main road frontage approximately 157'
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built with traditional wood construction
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Gas grill; Shed(s); Views; Level, private lot with road frontage; Creek on the property (Mill Creek) - waterfront feature

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first level
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air; Oil heating; Wood stove (supplemental heating)
• Interior features: Storm door(s); Wood burning stove; 5 rooms total
• Laundry & utility: Basement utilities include wood stove (basement listed with pillar/post/pier)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-454 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (44.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (44.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (44.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.3% in North Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#683 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Johnsburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #521 of 755 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,750 (44.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.29%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,101
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -34.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $46,036
• Equity at exit: $137,283

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $155,148
• Equity at exit: $273,746

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12886

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,924/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $-454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $98,750

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-353	-5% $-404	+0% $-454	+5% $-505	+10% $-556
Rent	-10% $-533	-5% $-494	+0% $-454	+5% $-415	+10% $-376
Rate	-1.0pp $-364	-0.5pp $-409	base $-454	+0.5pp $-501	+1.0pp $-548

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $189,000 Active 350-char remark
18. 2026-04-22
    historical
19. 2025-07-28
    price $212,000
20. 2025-05-21
    listed $219,000 Active
21. 2024-12-27
    historical
22. 2024-06-27
    listed $219,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,924 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,475 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$551/yr (+$46/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,924
• − Insurance: −$1,692
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$955
• − Management: −$955
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$8,824
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,118
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615870
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,308
• Composite: 42.4/100
• National rank: #6915
• State rank: #521 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Creek

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #683
• US rank: #12939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 199

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 14% Slovak 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.11%
• Current HPI: 279.7862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-18.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $179,000 Global MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $189,000 Global MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $212,000 Global MLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $219,000 Global MLS
• 2024-12-27 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2024-06-27 Listed $219,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,924 · +96.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.