5352 Merritt Dr · Chincoteague, VA 23336

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 142 Days on market

Built 1973 4,791 sqft lot $136/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable Chincoteague Opportunity! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home at 5352 Merritt offers an excellent chance to own on Chincoteague at an affordable price point. Ideal for investment, long-term rental or personal island use, this property delivers a practical layout, comfortable living space, sunroom, detached garage and a HOT TUB. This home is just minutes from downtown Chincoteague and local shops, restaurants and the beaches of Assateague Island.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Sunroom
• Restaurants

Tags

• SUNROOM
• DETACHED GARAGE
• HOT TUB
• LOCAL SHOPS
• RESTAURANTS
• BEACHES OF ASSATEAGUE ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (22.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.3% in Chincoteague — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#350 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A, crime A, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,955 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.46%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,903
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -56.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6033 Lewis St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,106 (+0%)	2mo	$295,000	$267	76
5032 Main St	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+2%)	20mo	$500,000	$446	73
4670 Main St	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,086 (-1%)	20mo	$369,000	$340	70
5186 Main St	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,058 (-4%)	3mo	$424,000	$401	65
5250 Pine Tree Way	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+2%)	13mo	$392,000	$350	52
4496 Main St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+8%)	15mo	$598,500	$505	50
6029 Daisy St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	982 (-11%)	9mo	$281,000	$286	49
4475 Deep Hole Rd	0.67mi	3/3.5	1,240 (+13%)	2mo	$375,000	$302	36
5376 Pearl Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,254 (+14%)	19mo	$320,000	$255	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-39,006
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-52,101
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23336

• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,554 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,852

Max offer price $115,955

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-01-13
   listed $160,000 Active 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   Affordable Chincoteague Opportunity! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home at 5352 Merritt offers an excellent chance to own on Chincoteague at an affordable price point. Ideal for investment, long-term rental or personal island use, this property delivers a practical layout, comfortable living space, sunroom, detached garage and a HOT TUB. This home is just minutes from downtown Chincoteague and local shops, restaurants and the beaches of Assateague Island.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$5,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,492
• − Management: −$1,492
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$5,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chincoteague

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #13891

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chincoteague, VA
• City population: 3,323
• Population (ZIP): 3,323

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.07%
• Current HPI: 202.7427
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $160,000 ESAR

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $247 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.