Sentosa Plan · Fort Worth, TX 76036

$291,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Cottage 55' Collection is a series of new single-family homes at the Deer Creek masterplan in peaceful Crowley, TX. Homeowners have access to a range of masterplan amenities, including a swimming pool, community center and onsite park. Deer Creek offers access to highly desirable local schools, while proximity to I-35 makes commutes and travel simple. Residents are just minutes from shopping, dining and entertainment in downtown Fort Worth, with popular destinations including Sundance Square.

Key facts

• I-35 access
• Community center
• Swimming pool

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• ONSITE PARK
• LOCAL SCHOOLS
• I-35 ACCESS
• SHOPPING DINING ENTERTAINMENT

🏗️ New construction. The $291,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $370,642.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-701 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sidney H Poynter (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 422 students, 81% FRL); H F Stevens Middle (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 747 students, 84% FRL); Crowley H S (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,351 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 52% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1036 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,462 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.11%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,642
• List price: $291,999
• Delta: -21.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1044 Pineview Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,812 (+11%)	2mo	$339,966	$188	71
1017 Stonehaven Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,813 (+11%)	2mo	$344,558	$190	69
1008 Windsong Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,812 (+11%)	8mo	$339,888	$188	65
1324 Alderwood Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (+3%)	8mo	$289,900	$172	64
1141 Turtle Hill Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+13%)	8mo	$392,990	$214	61
1009 Stonehaven Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (+15%)	1mo	$329,999	$177	59
1341 Fox Glen Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (+0%)	8mo	$310,400	$190	59
1020 Pineview Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+13%)	9mo	$379,609	$206	58
1005 Pineview Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (+15%)	10mo	$359,888	$193	57
1016 Windsong Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (+15%)	6mo	$359,999	$193	56
1320 Cedar Creek Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (+9%)	8mo	$335,000	$188	46
1321 Fox Glen Trl	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (+15%)	9mo	$359,000	$192	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-106,382
• Equity at exit: $55,264

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-156,854
• Equity at exit: $32,046

Cash invested: $103,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76036

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1036
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,355 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$463 /mo · $5,560/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,242

Max offer price $269,167

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-445	-5% $-573	+0% $-701	+5% $-829	+10% $-957
Rent	-10% $-887	-5% $-794	+0% $-701	+5% $-608	+10% $-515
Rate	-1.0pp $-515	-0.5pp $-607	base $-701	+0.5pp $-797	+1.0pp $-895

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,660
• Closing costs: $11,119
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1312 Hunters Ridge Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	3.0	2155	$2,700	$1.25	12d	1	0.47mi
720 Watson Way Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,095	$1.18	45d	1	0.82mi
744 Walls Blvd Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1792	$2,300	$1.28	45d	1	0.89mi
705 Loftin St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,200	$1.45	45d	1	0.94mi
752 Rutherford Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,209	$1.19	45d	1	0.95mi
625 Hutchins Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,885	$1.39	45d	1	0.95mi
708 Cheryl St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,100	$1.27	20d	1	0.95mi
552 Kerry St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,295	$1.40	3d	1	1.03mi
9125 Nevis Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$2,159	$1.44	0d	1	1.08mi
2604 Mill Springs Pass Fort Worth, TX	5.0	2.0	1822	$2,340	$1.28	45d	1	1.10mi
605 Hidden Dale Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,875	$1.61	45d	1	1.19mi
2720 Gains Mill Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1757	$2,000	$1.14	0d	1	1.22mi
517 Misty Mountain Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1342	$2,050	$1.53	0d	1	1.23mi
824 E Prairie View Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	45d	1	1.32mi
8457 Asheville Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,049	$1.14	45d	1	1.32mi
9157 Abaco Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,089	$1.23	26d	1	1.32mi
9157 Abaco Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,149	$1.26	45d	1	1.32mi
708 E Prairie View Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,750	$1.62	14d	1	1.33mi
9165 Abaco Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,095	$1.23	0d	1	1.33mi
433 Heritage Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$1,970	$1.10	12d	1	1.34mi
8440 Asheville Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	2048	$2,250	$1.10	14d	1	1.35mi
416 Heritage Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	2250	$2,250	$1.00	4d	1	1.35mi
501 McCurdy St Crowley, TX	5.0	2.0	1798	$2,850	$1.59	22d	1	1.35mi
220 Elk Run Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1781	$1,965	$1.10	17d	1	1.36mi
816 Oriel Cir Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,400	$1.56	3d	1	1.36mi
237 Kennedy Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,920	$1.30	0d	1	1.37mi
10009 Quail Glen Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,795	$1.59	45d	1	1.38mi
8832 Elk Creek Ln Fort Worth, TX	5.0	2.0	2105	$3,200	$1.52	0d	1	1.39mi
8612 Orleans Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1790	$1,900	$1.06	45d	1	1.41mi
200 Kennedy Ct Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,860	$1.26	45d	1	1.42mi
2808 Adams Fall Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,100	$1.36	45d	1	1.42mi
205 Kennedy Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,935	$1.31	14d	1	1.43mi
204 Kennedy Ct Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,015	$1.36	4d	1	1.43mi
10905 Fawn Valley Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1796	$1,885	$1.05	7d	1	1.44mi
10600 Bilsky Bay Dr Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,765	$1.93	26d	24	1.47mi
280 Edison Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,925	$1.30	26d	1	1.47mi
8564 Charleston Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,875	$1.28	26d	1	1.49mi
2605 Bear Oak Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,950	$1.46	7d	1	1.50mi
3408 Saint Vincent Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,195	$1.57	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $291,999 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $291,999 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $291,999 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $291,999 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $291,999 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $291,999 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $291,999 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $291,999 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $291,999 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $291,999 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $291,999 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $291,999 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $291,999 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $291,999 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $291,999 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $291,999 Active 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

17. 2026-04-22
    listed $291,999 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,762
• − Property taxes: −$5,560
• − Insurance: −$1,853
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − Depreciation: −$10,782
• Taxable loss: −$15,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,653
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The home is in poor condition with significant roof and exterior damage, requiring extensive repairs and maintenance. Immediate action is needed to address these issues to improve the home's value and functionality.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage with visible cracks and missing shingles.
• Major exterior siding — Poor condition with visible damage.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos provided, but likely in poor condition based on the overall condition of the home.
• Major landscaping — No photos provided, but likely in poor condition based on the overall condition of the home.
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos provided, but likely in poor condition based on the overall condition of the home.
• Major flooring — No photos provided, but likely in poor condition based on the overall condition of the home.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof repair — Fixing the roof would improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding would improve the home's curb appeal and functionality.
• Both HVAC replacement — Replacing the HVAC system would improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping would enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both interior painting — Painting the interior would improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both flooring replacement — Replacing the flooring would improve the home's appearance and functionality.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage with visible cracks and missing shingles.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Poor condition with visible damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos provided, but likely in poor condition based on the overall condition of the home.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No photos provided, but likely in poor condition based on the overall condition of the home.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos provided, but likely in poor condition based on the overall condition of the home.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No photos provided, but likely in poor condition based on the overall condition of the home.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof repair — Fixing the roof would improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding would improve the home's curb appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — Replacing the HVAC system would improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping would enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both interior painting — Painting the interior would improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Replacing the flooring would improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crowley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815910
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,810
• Composite: 25.04/100
• National rank: #7549
• State rank: #643 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,044
• Household income: $97,973
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
• Current HPI: 238.6365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $291,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $291,999 Zillow